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US500Cash


Analyses XM

Market Comment – Dollar slides, gold shines after soft US labor market data

Dollar drops as jobless claims signal labor market is losing steam Gold and stock markets climb, capitalizing on Fed rate cut bets Sterling retreats on BoE decision, but recovers after GDP stats Softer US jobs data fuels rate cut hopes  Global markets are set to close the trading week in a cheerful mood after another round of incoming US employment data pointed to an ongoing softening in the labor market, fueling hopes that the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than anticipat
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US 500 cash index attempts to erase latest pullback Jumps above crucial 123.6% Fibo and eyes record peak       Oscillators recover drastically and approach overbought levels The US 500 stock index (cash) has been staging an impressive rally after bottoming out in October 2023, generating consecutive all-time highs. Despite experiencing a strong pullback from its record high of 5,281, the index quickly found its feet and rotated back higher.
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Market Comment – Dollar stays weak as Fed rate cut bets increase

US labor market cools more than expected Dollar slides as two rate cuts this year become more likely Yen retreats as intervention momentum fades Wall Street cheers prospect of lower interest rates Investors add back to their Fed rate cut bets The US dollar tumbled across the board on Friday and extended losses against some of its major peers on Monday after the US employment report revealed that the world’s largest economy saw its fewest job gains in six months in April, whi
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Market Comment – Dollar slides as Powell rules out rate hikes

Fed appears less hawkish than expected Dollar and Treasury yields pull back Yen rallies on another round of suspected intervention Wall Street trades cautiously ahead of NFPs Fed is still leaning towards rate cuts The US dollar slipped against all its major counterparts yesterday, losing the most ground against the Japanese yen, with dollar/yen closing the day slightly more than 2% down.
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Technical Analysis – US 500 index might hit lower levels after Tuesday’s slump

US 500 index exposed to more downside after Tuesday’s pullback Short-term risk is negative. Will the bears crack the floor at 4,965-5,000?   The US 500 stock index (cash) traded flat at the start of the US open as investors waited for the FOMC policy announcement today at 18:00 GMT. Despite the current muted tone in the market, the short-term outlook does not look promising, especially after the price got hammered near the resistance line from April’s record high for the fourth ti
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Market Comment – Dollar enjoys a bid; stocks concerned about a hawkish Fed

Fed meeting in the spotlight; equities under pressure Dollar strength continues, could intensify if Fed appears hawkish Questionable yen intervention result; more action over the next sessions? Bitcoin fights for $60k level; oil in retreat despite Middle East headlines May starts on a high note The Fed meeting concludes today with the decision announced at 18:00 GMT and the press conference taking place 30 minutes later.
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Besides yen pairs, neutral volatility across the board ahead of Fed and NFP – Volatility Watch

Japan’s intervention spurs volatility in yen pairs, usual action elsewhere in FX market Commodities enjoy lower volatility as geopolitical tensions subside Equities at neutral volatility levels during earnings season, Bitcoin volatility picks up Volatility in yen crosses has exploded on the back of a suspected Japanese intervention. Moreover, apart from dollar/yen, other dollar pairs are trading in the middle of their volatility range ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and
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Technical Analysis – US 500 cash index is in the green ahead of the Fed

US 500 index is edging higher, a tad below the 50-day SMA Bulls are feeling more confident following strong tech earnings  Momentum indicators are mixed at this stage The US 500 cash index is trying to record its third consecutive green candle today as the bulls are probably feeling relieved following the recent strong tech earnings and the lack of a significant upside surprise in last week’s PCE report.
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Market Comment – Yen keeps sinking after Bank of Japan decision

Yen falls to fresh multi-decade lows after BoJ rate decision US GDP flashes mixed signals, dollar retreats in aftermath Stocks recover on solid tech earnings, gold resumes uptrend  Yen plummets - how close is FX intervention?  The Japanese yen continues to melt down, hitting new multi-decade lows against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan refrained from providing any concrete signals on further rate increases and following some disappointing inflation data from Tokyo.  Ev
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Market Comment – Yen tumbles to fresh lows, dollar awaits GDP

Yen falls to new 34-year low ahead of BoJ decision Dollar traders await GDP and PCE data Wall Street mixed, gold stays on the back foot Will Ueda appear in a hawkish suit this time? The yen extended its tumble to a fresh 34-year low, falling below 155.00 per dollar. With less than 24 hours to go for the Bank of Japan’s decision, investors are likely sitting on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the gathering’s outcome.
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Market Comment – Stocks in the green, dollar stable as next batch of US data awaited

Stocks feeling more positive following the US PMI miss Busy earnings calendar as focus remains on US data prints Dollar/yen remains a tad below 155 ahead of the BoJ meeting Aussie benefits from stronger CPI report Market wants more of the PMI surveys medicine The recent US data prints and particularly the mid-April inflation report has clearly alarmed the market of the possibility that the Fed could keep its rates unchanged in 2024. This is quite a shift considering that i
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Slightly lower volatility across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Lower volatility is on the cards for the FX market Gold to enjoy lower volatility; oil probably too quiet considering geopolitics Equities volatility remains elevated, especially in JP225 index Volatility in EUR/USD has eased up a bit but remains high amidst continued rhetoric for an ECB rate cut in June. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in maintaining volatility high in the remaining currencies, including the yen and pound crosses, with the former facin
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Market Comment – Dollar pulls back, but yen hits new 34-year low

Dollar loses ground against risk-linked currencies But yen continues to slide to new 34-year low Stocks rebound, gold falls on easing geopolitical concerns Key US data could further weigh on Fed rate cut bets The US dollar retreated somewhat against most of its major peers on Monday, losing the most ground against the risk-linked currencies kiwi, aussie and loonie, perhaps as the cooling Middle East tensions allowed investors to increase their risk exposures.
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Market Comment – Risk appetite returns as geopolitical fears calm

Global markets in a better mood amid lack of Iran-Israel escalation  Stocks recover after sharp selloff, oil and gold prices turn down  Busy week ahead for economic data releases and tech earnings Relief rally Global markets started the new week on a positive note, as the absence of further escalation in the Israel-Iran crisis helped calm investor nerves.
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Week Ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the dollar Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap Earnings season heats up as tech giants report Will US data throw more Fed rate cuts off the table? The dollar staged a strong recovery the last couple of weeks, with the bulls being encouraged to initiate long positions as soon as the US CPI data revealed that inflation in the world’s largest economy reaccelerat
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Market Comment – US dollar on the back foot as nervousness lingers in equity markets

Euro edges higher despite continued hawkish commentary from Fed officials Geopolitical developments cast doubt on ECB June rate cut Yen fails to make considerable gains as market looks to Friday’s CPI data Dollar is on the back foot today Euro/dollar is rising today after testing the 1.06 level. The combination of dovish commentary from the ECB and hawkish Fedspeak, which played a key role in the recent dollar outperformance, appears to have lost its market-moving ability toda
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Market Comment – Geopolitics and Fedspeak keep stocks under pressure

Stocks remain under pressure as Fedspeak and US data dent rate cuts chances Dollar remains dominant against both the euro and the yen UK inflation surprises on the upside; the pound tries to rally A plethora of Fed, ECB and BoE speakers to keep the market on its toes today Stocks remain under pressure across the globe The market’s attention remains firmly on Middle East developments.
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What’s next for markets amid Israel-Iran tensions?

Iran launches strikes against Israel, but markets don’t panic  Traders seem hopeful this won’t escalate into full-blown war How Israel responds will be crucial for risky assets and oil prices   Political theater?  Tensions in the Middle East reached boiling point over the weekend after Iran launched drone and missile strikes against Israel, in retaliation to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic consulate in Syria earlier this month.
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Geopolitical developments and stronger US data push volatility to new highs across the board – Volatility Watch

Volatility remains extremely high across the FX spectrum Commodities volatility reaches new highs; Bitcoin poised for smaller moves Equities volatility is off the charts led by the S&P 500 and DAX 40 indices Volatility in EUR/USD remains very high as the pair recorded a decent weekly drop following the stronger US CPI data. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in pushing volatility higher in the remaining currencies, including the yen crosses, with the market n
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Technical Analysis – US 500 reverses towards 123.6% Fibonacci

US 500 cash index experiences a minor pullack Meets support at 123.6% Fibo extension of its 2022 downtrend Oscillators exit overbought zones, but do not weaken dramatically The US 500 stock index (cash) has been staging an impressive rally since it bottomed out in October 2023, generating consecutive all-time highs. Although the price has been experiencing a setback in the past two weeks, it’s still too early to call for a sustained downside correction.
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