Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD
US CPI report may show the next direction of EURUSD
UK employment data may take GBPUSD down
Is Australia labour report strong enough to take AUDUSD out of trading range?
During the previous week's meeting, the Federal Reserve displayed a less aggressive stance than anticipated, as Chair Powell explicitly stated that there would be no increases in interest rates and suggested that they are still inclined towards reducing rates. Traders will focus on the US CPI data for April, which will be released on Wednesday. Based on the S&P Global PMIs, output prices had a robust but slower growth rate in April compared to March.
EURUSD is flirting with the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as with the medium-term descending trend line. If the price successfully surpasses the aforementioned levels, then it may challenge the immediate 1.0814 resistance level ahead of the 1.0880 bar. Even higher, the pair may hit the 1.0940 hurdle. Alternatively, a pullback may drive the market down to the 20-day SMA at 1.0770 before falling to 1.0647. The technical oscillators are indicating a potential upside retracement.
UK labour report --> GBPUSDOn Tuesday, the UK will publish employment data for March with the unemployment data forecast to rise at 4.3% from 4.2% previously. Investors are likely to closely monitor wage growth to determine if it has continued to decline. This might potentially lead to a slowdown in inflation, as forecast by the Bank. Therefore, if wages slow down, the value of the pound may continue to decrease due to concerns among traders about the possibility of a June interest rate drop by the Bank of England.
In the chart, GBPUSD is battling with the 200-day SMA around the 1.2540 level and remains beneath the short-term downtrend line. A decline below the 1.2465 obstacle could open the way for the bears to test the five-month low of 1.23000. An aggressive fall below the latter level could endorse the short-term bearish structure, meeting the 1.2186 level. However, as the technical oscillators are showing some signs for an upside recovery, the first resistance could come from the near-term downtrend line and the 50-day SMA at 1.2590.
Australian employment report --> AUDUSDFollowing the RBA's decision to maintain a neutral posture, Australian traders will shift their focus to Australia's employment report on Thursday, which is expected to tick up to 3.9% versus 3.8% previously. Despite not ruling anything in or out, the Bank emphasized that a potential increase in wages and a significant recovery in employment could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in September.
AUDUSD has been developing within a trading range of 0.6390 – 0.6635 but is standing well above the short-term SMAs. Immediate resistance is coming from 0.6635 and the 0.6665 high. A climb beyond these lines would change the outlook to a more bullish one, testing the 0.6730 barrier. On the other hand, a dive below the 0.6555 support and the SMAs could switch the move south, challenging 0.6465. MACD and RSI are showing some weak sings.Aset Berkaitan
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