Slightly lower volatility across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

apr 23, 2024 om 9:54 am GMT- Achilleas Georgolopoulos, Stefanos Oikonomidis

• Lower volatility is on the cards for the FX market

• Gold to enjoy lower volatility; oil probably too quiet considering geopolitics

• Equities volatility remains elevated, especially in JP225 index

Volatility in EUR/USD has eased up a bit but remains high amidst continued rhetoric for an ECB rate cut in June. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in maintaining volatility high in the remaining currencies, including the yen and pound crosses, with the former facing a real risk of market intervention and the latter being affected by a recent CPI report.

Volatility in the commodities space has also dropped a bit, particularly in oil, which is very surprising considering the recent Middle East developments. Gold and silver volatility is still elevated, though, with both assets suffering from sizeable weekly price drops.

Turning to risky assets, stock indices remain in the red following the latest escalation between Iran and Israel, the possibility of no rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and the ongoing earnings reporting round. Volatility remains high, led by the JP225 index, maintaining the possibility of further highly volatile sessions ahead.

In the meantime, bitcoin volatility jumped higher following a rather quiet period. The much-touted halving event and the current stocks' weakness have probably contributed to this volatility rise.