Presidential race dominates headlines and complicates Fed’s job Equities suffered in the two months leading up to the last six presidential elections Market’s performance in the 2016 pre-election period could be a useful guide Dollar strengthened in 2016 but equities were under pressure Significant developments in the race lately  The recent gun attack against Donald Trump and US President Biden's candidacy withdrawal last weekend have raised even more the profile of

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.

Performance of key market assets resembles the 2006-07 period The S&P 500 index could experience a sizable correction The current US 10-year yield drop could have legs Yen could benefit further as euro/dollar volatility is possibly heading north Fed readies for a September rate cut  Almost one year after the last Fed rate hike, the latest developments in the US, predominantly the recent labour market report and last week's weaker inflation prints, have probably tipped

Gold gains around 18% year-to-date But is it time for the uptrend to cool down a bit? Even if so, the broader outlook remains positive   Gold shines bright Gold had a great year-to-date performance, gaining around 18% and hitting a record high of 2450 on May 20. As discussed in previous reports, gold’s uptrend was fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank buying and strong consumer demand, especially in China, as well as expectations of lower borrowing costs, at

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.

Thursday's UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves General election in sight The UK general election will be held this Thursday, July 4, the day that the US will be celebrating its 248th anniversary from the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April

Far-right National Rally party maintains lead ahead of June 30 first round of votes But can it secure an absolute majority as left-wing alliance makes progress? A hung parliament might be the worst outcome for the euro France in political turmoil President Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative vote hot on the heels of the European elections came as a complete shock not only in France but also across Europe, not to mention for financial markets.

UK citizens head to the ballots on July 4 Opinion polls point to a Labour Party victory Political stability could initially benefit the pound But BoE rate cut bets could prove negative in the longer run   How it works On July 4, Britons will head to the ballots to vote in a general election, with opinion polls suggesting that they will end 14 years of Conservative rule.

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.

Euro and pound pairs are very volatile but for different reasons Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin seems quiet Volatility in euro crosses has picked up as the region suffers from political instability following the EU elections and fears of a renewed debt crisis.

The 2024 European Football Championship starts today History points to strong stock market performance for the host country Major sporting events held in the eurozone could boost growth ECB to monitor consumer sentiment more closely With the market digesting the latest developments, it is time for football on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Snap elections in France spur panic in euro and French stock market Doubts about Germany’s coalition add to euro’s woes Is political instability about to become a persistent risk for the euro? Europe steers to the right Financial markets don’t usually pay so much attention to elections for the European Parliament, as national governments are often seen as the bigger force in setting EU policy.

Forex pairs are very volatile after strong NFP report Volatility in gold and silver ticks up, oil swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump amid correction fears Volatility in dollar crosses has picked up as the stronger-than-expected NFP report dialed back rate cut expectations, while investors are bracing for the FOMC meeting and the CPI print later this week. Euro pairs are in a similar position after the EU elections sparked a wave of politically instabili

Markets crave weaker US data to support their rate cut expectations Strong data this week could cause an acute market reaction The Fed might find it easier to act if financial stability is under threat The key question in the market participants’ minds is when the Fed is going to start easing its monetary policy stance. The year started with the market pricing in at least five rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, but with inflation remaining above 3% since July 2023, expectations have t

Forex pairs in a quiet mood despite upcoming rate decisions Volatility in oil skyrockets, gold swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump as they ease from record highs Euro/dollar and euro/pound volatilities have been in the middle of their 30-day range, even though markets are bracing for the first interest rate cut by the ECB since 2016 on its Thursday meeting.

ECB prepares to cut rates for the first time ahead of the Fed History points to strong possibility of back-to-back rate cuts Both the euro and German DAX tend to underperform on meeting day The ECB is on the brink of announcing its first rate cut since March 2016 as the overall rhetoric from ECB officials leaves little doubt about next week’s rate decision, with even the most hawkish members of the Governing council acknowledging the need for rate cuts.

Pound gains as BoE seen cutting rates late Economy improves but inflation may further slow A Labor victory could make the BoE’s job easier As rate cuts come forward, pound may weaken Sticky core inflation weighs on rate cut bets We are nearly halfway through 2024 and the pound is holding the first place among the major currencies in terms of year-to-date performance.