美國居民不適用 XM 服務。

Gold makes the running as oil fails to fire



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>MORNING BID EUROPE-Gold makes the running as oil fails to fire</title></head><body>

By Wayne Cole

Dec 4 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole


Asian stocks have made a hesitant start to the week, while gold hit a new peak and Treasuries ran into profit-taking on their recent stellar gains. Oil failed to sustain an early rally that followed news of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Three vessels came under attack in international waters on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area.

The threat to such a major global shipping route could add to inflationary pressure, although the impact seemed limited so far. Notably, oil prices lost early gains and Brent eased around 57 cents to $78.31 a barrel amid doubts that OPEC+ would be able to maintain planned output cuts, particularly by some African countries. O/R

At the same time, U.S. oil output is at record levels above 13 million barrels a day and rig counts are still rising. That means the U.S. is producing more oil than Saudi Arabia right now.

A commodity faring better is gold, which surged suddenly this morning to top $2,111 an ounce XAU= for the first time before paring the gains to $2,086. GOL/

There was no obvious catalyst for the move, leaving dealers suspecting the hidden hand of trend-following CTAs and algo funds following the break of a triple-top around $2,107.

Central banks have also been gold bugs, buying a net 800 metric tons in the year to September in a record for that period. Bulls are now touting chart targets at $2,240 and $2,400.

Market pricing for early and aggressive rate cuts is clearly a positive for non-yielding gold, with Fed fund futures 0#FF: currently implying a 59% chance of a U.S. cut as early as March. A week ago that probability was around 20%.

There are also 125 basis points (bps) of easing implied for all of 2024, up from 80 bps a couple of weeks ago.FEDWATCH

In addition, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of the ECB easing in March, although the hawkish head of Bundesbank pushed back against such prospects in an interview over the weekend.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will have her chance to comment in a speech and Q&A later on Monday.

Such extreme pricing leaves the market vulnerable to pullbacks, and both Fed funds and Treasuries ran into selling on Monday. Yields on U.S. two-year notes US2YT=RR rose almost 4 bps, but that follows a drop of 40 bps last week.

German two-year bunds DE2YT=RR also look susceptible to some profit-taking after yields dived 41 bps last week.

Bonds really need U.S. November payrolls on Friday to be solid enough to support the soft-landing scenario, but not so strong as to threaten the chance of easing.

Median forecasts are for payrolls to rise 180,000, keeping unemployment steady at 3.9%.

Many analysts suspect risks are to the upside, with Goldman Sachs tipping 238,000, including a chunk of workers returning from strikes, and a jobless rate of 3.8%.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Speech and Q&A by ECB President Christine Lagarde

- Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman speaks, Riksbank publishes minutes from policy meeting

- German trade data for Oct, Euro Zone sentiment index for Dec. Data on U.S. durable goods and auto sales


Market performance https://tmsnrt.rs/3RlTZP7

Poll projects uptick in US jobs https://tmsnrt.rs/46xceW1

Emerging optimism https://tmsnrt.rs/3RoRonH

Rates rethink https://tmsnrt.rs/3RokweO


By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann

</body></html>

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

風險提示:您的資金存在風險。槓桿商品並不適合所有客戶。請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明