How far behind the curve exactly?



A look at the day ahead in markets from Julien Ponthus. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard argued that the U.S. Federal Reserve is "not as far behind the curve as you might have thought".

With inflation running over 6%, the jury is out on whether last week's 50 basis point rate hike is catching up with the curve or falling woefully behind.

But while the terminal U.S. rate pricing solidifies around 3.5% in mid- 2023, only time will tell whether the Fed's aggressive plan to hike rates this year will tip the economy into recession or not.

Equally, the pace of interest rates hikes is already fuelling recession fears in Britain where the BoE warned that dealing with an inflation over 10% will have dire consequences for the economy.

In the meantime, the world must now cope with fast-rising bond yields and a surging greenback.

The dollar hit a two-decade high this morning as investors turned to their favourite safe haven as the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China continued to weigh on global growth.

This morning's data showed China's export growth slowed to its weakest in almost two years.

These growth concerns may deter central banks, especially in Europe and Japan, to tighten policy in line with the Fed.

A number of currency strategists have already flagged the risk of seeing the euro go below parity with the dollar while the yen is trading towards levels unseen in about two decades.

The mood is also worsening across stock markets as the rise in yields of 'risk-free' government bonds dent the appeal of wobbly risk assets.

U.S. stocks marked their fifth consecutive weekly drop last week -- its worst run since 2011.

The Nasdaq is down about 25% from its peak in November when the 'transitory inflation' narrative was officially ditched by central bankers.

After four consecutive weekly losses, European stock markets are set to begin cash trading yet again in the red this morning. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday: -Chipmaker Infineon raises 2022 revenue outlook after results beat -G7 to phase out Russian oil, U.S. sanctions Gazprombank execs over Ukraine war -China's exports growth hits 2 year-low as virus curbs hit factories -Japan's service sector activity posts first growth since Dec - PMI

-Indonesia's economy stays on growth path in Q1 as price pressures loom

-Bitcoin falls to lowest since January, in line with tumbling stock markets



FEd funds and dollar Link



Reporting by Julien Ponthus; Editing by Saikat Chatterjee

免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務,允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容,但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限,並受以下條款與條例約束:(i)條款與條例;(ii)風險提示;(iii)完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊,僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意,我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成,也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。

所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料,僅適用於教育/資訊類用途,不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議,或是交易價格紀錄,或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。

本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容,包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接,皆爲‘按原狀’,並作爲一般市場評論所提供,而非投資建議。請理解和接受,所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容,並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性,而根據法律要求所編寫,而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊,相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。

我們運用 cookies 提供您最佳之網頁使用經驗。更改您的cookie 設定跟詳情。

風險提示:您的資金存在風險。槓桿商品並不適合所有客戶。請詳細閱讀我們的風險聲明