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US recap: Dollar's month-end bounce pruned by PMIs and Powell



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Dec 1 (Reuters) -The dollar index fell 0.3%, giving back some of Thursday's month-end rebound as Fed Chair Jerome Powell proved less hawkish than feared amid dovish comments by several other Fed speakers this week, thus reviving Q1 rate-cut pricing with help from below-forecast ISM manufacturing.

A Fed rate cut in March reached its highest probability, now at 65%, with futures pricing in a whopping 130bp of rate cuts next year. And 2-year Treasury yields plunged 15bp, breaking below key support by 4.6% near November and July lows and 38.2% of the March-October post-banking crisis rise.

EUR/USD erasedits earlier drop to Friday's 1.0829 low by Fibo and mid-November swing lows, but the ECB is seen on an even more aggressive paththan theFed rate regarding rate cuts next year, including a 27.4% probability of a January move and 135bp of easing by December.

Euro zone manufacturing PMI improved slightly, but remained deeply negative at 44.2 versus the ISM's unchanged 46.7 November reading. The focus now, with the Fed blackout period underway before their Dec. 12-13 meeting, is the broader ISM services and employment reports on Tuesday and Friday, ahead of CPI on Dec. 12 and retail sales on the 14th.

USD/JPY fell a full percent as 2-year Treasury-JGB yields spreads collapsed to levels last seen in May, when USD/JPY was trading below 140. Because shorter-term JGB yields are already close to zero, there's far less scope for JGB yields to keep pace with falling Treasury yields.

Potential for its massive double-top to be followed next by falls to key props at 144.58 and even by 139.50. Any further softening on U.S. data would squeeze out hefty spec yen shorts.

Sterling rose 0.66% as gilt-Treasury yield spreads resumed their rise, briefly interrupted by Thursday's month-end consolidation. Prices are back up by November's 1.2733 peak and the 61.8% Fibo of the July-October slide at 1.2722.

BoE's first 2024 rate cut isn't priced in until June, with just 77bp of easing for the year, as UK inflation remains much higher than the U.S. or euro zone's.

Aussie ran with the risk-on andyields-lower theme, rising 1% to test Wednesday's November trend highs, with the 200-DMA below at 0.6581 looking like a springboard toward perhaps testing July's highs.

USD/CAD fell 0.45% to its lowest since September evenafter mixed Canadian jobs data and weaker-than-forecast GDP figures on Thursday and lower crude prices following OPEC+'s meeting.

For more click on FXBUZ



Editing by Burton Frierson
Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

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