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Market Comment – Core PCE inflation takes center stage

Dollar extends advance ahead of core PCE data Dollar/yen stays on intervention watch S&P 500 secures strongest Q1 in five years Gold stretches to new record high Will PCE data point to sticky inflation? The US dollar continued outperforming most of its major peers on Thursday as the upside revision of the US GDP data for Q4 added more credence to Fed Governor Waller’s view that the Fed should not rush into lowering interest rates.
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD pauses four-day slide

USDCAD pauses bearish correction near support area Technical signals are weak amid holiday-thinned liquidity conditions All eyes turn to the US core PCE inflation due at 12:30 GMT   USDCAD was trading with soft positive momentum around 1.3547 during Friday’s early European trading hours as investors headed into the Easter holiday.
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Technical Analysis – GBPJPY weakens near 191.00

GBPJPY remains above the rising trend line But technical oscillators are losing steam as well GBPJPY has been posting some flat days over the last four sessions, holding near the short-term uptrend line. The market is developing near the 191.00 round number with the technical oscillators confirming the weakening momentum. The RSI is moving horizontally above the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is holding beneath its trigger line above zero level.
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Technical Analysis – USDCHF rally takes a breather but no concerns yet

USDCHF loses momentum after slightly surpassing 0.9000 A pullback is likely, but the bullish trend could stay intact     USDCHF stretched its three-week rally above the 0.9000 threshold for the first time in four months, but the 0.9036 region has been a hurdle over the past few days, pushing the price softly to the red zone during Thursday’s European trading hours.
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Technical Analysis – BTCUSD advances towards all-time highs

BTCUSD pauses pullback and rotates higher Conquers 70,000 but encounters strong resistance Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) had been undergoing a strong pullback from its all-time highs, dropping to as low as 60,760 last week. However, the price quickly recovered significant ground, surpassing the 70,000 psychological mark and to trade within breathing distance from its all-time highs.

Exploring trends and investment opportunities in thematic indices

Thematic indices have seen a rise in popularity in recent years But what are they and what is their purpose as an investment tool? What thematic indices does XM offer? Introducing thematic indices Thematic indices are designed to capture trends arising from structural shifts within the technological, geopolitical and macroeconomic spheres that are often disruptive by nature.
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Market Comment – Fed’s Waller fuels the dollar, yen intervention warnings intensify

Fed Gov. Waller says no rush to lower rates June rate cut probability declines, dollar gains Yen recovers on stronger intervention warnings Wall Street and gold trade north Dollar gains as Waller signals patience The US dollar finished Wednesday slightly higher against all but one of its major peers and continues to trade on the front foot on Thursday as well.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD gets bearish vibes

AUDUSD violates key support zone Bearish pressures could persist in short-term   AUDUSD’s short-term upward pattern is under threat as it faces the risk of closing below the October support trendline at 0.6500, following another rejection near its exponential moving averages (EMAs). Technical indicators suggest the bears are in control as the RSI is decelerating below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is weakening within the negative region.
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Technical Analysis – WTI oil futures in fierce battle with 50.0% Fibo

WTI futures post an almost 5-month peak But fail to advance further and hover around 50.0% Fibo Oscillators suggest that the bulls retain the upper hand WTI oil futures (May delivery) have been in a steady recovery from their December bottom of 67.97, posting an almost five-month peak of 83.10 last week. However, the advance seems to be on hold for now as the price has reversed lower and formed a symmetrical triangle around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 95.02-67.9
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Technical Analysis – GER 40 index marks highs after highs

German 40 index hits all-time high Uptrend shows ongoing strength, but a pause is likely   The German 40 index has been having an exceptional performance so far in 2024, gaining more than 10% to unlock an all-time high of 18,510 on Wednesday. The ongoing positive trend has yet to show any cracks, but with the price marking its 10th consecutive green week near the upper Bollinger band and the momentum indicators pointing to overbought conditions, the bears could be around the corne
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Clues on US economic momentum will be vital ahead of the March jobs report ISM employment and prices paid components will be watched closely The PMIs are due next Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services) at 14:00 GMT Not too hot, not too cold The US economy is showing some signs of a slowdown, both in terms of consumer spending and jobs growth.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD eases below 200-day SMA

EURUSD may touch uptrend line MACD and RSI indicate negative movements EURUSD is slipping beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but is still above the 1.0800 area. As the market remains above this level and the medium-term ascending trend line, the outlook is still bullish. However, the technical oscillators are suggesting a bearish retracement.
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Gold remains above SMAs and close to 2,200 MACD strengthens its momentum Gold prices continue to rise above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), stretching the upward pattern towards the record high of 2,222.68. According to the MACD, positive momentum could push for further gains in the short-term as the indicator picks up steam above its red signal line.
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Market Comment – Yen sinks to intervention ‘danger zone’

Yen slips to new 34-year low, drawing stronger intervention threats Swiss franc loses ground too, dollar rebounds after solid US data Gold steady near record highs, chipmakers weigh on stock markets Yen hits the danger zone Currency traders are dusting off their FX intervention playbooks after the Japanese yen briefly fell to its lowest levels since 1990 against the dollar, drawing fierce warnings from officials in Tokyo that they could step in to defend the currency.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD returns to bearish trend

NZDUSD extends bearish trend to a four-month low Resistance near 0.6000; support seen at 0.5980   Following two weeks of losses, NZDUSD is now aiming to find a firm footing around 0.6000, having dropped to a four-month low of 0.5984. The latest bearish wave has re-activated the downtrend from December’s peak of 0.6368. Overcoming the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December upleg at 0.6000 may prove difficult, leading to a decline below the support trendline at 0.5
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Technical Analysis – Are USDJPY bulls ready for a new record high?

USDJPY trades higher again, testing the October 21, 2022 high Last week's events have renewed the bullish pressure as intervention risk increases Momentum indicators support the bullish move; all eyes are on the stochastic oscillator USDJPY is continuing its journey north and it is now testing the October 21, 2022 high at 151.94 as last week’s events have probably invigorated the bulls.
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Technical Analysis – Will EURJPY re-test the 16-year high soon?

EURJPY rebounds off 163.30, holding above rising trend line Bullish bias in longer-term timeframes But MACD and RSI loses momentum in near term EURJPY found support at the 163.30 barrier and is moving again towards the 16-year high of 165.36 that was recorded on March 20. The pair has been remaining in an upward tendency since December 7, but the technical oscillators are indicating weakening bias.
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Technical Analysis – US Dollar index heads south above SMAs

Dollar index remains above uptrend line Stochastics look overstretched The US dollar index is retreating following the pullback from the 104.20 resistance level and is approaching the immediate support of the crossover within the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Momentum indicators are pointing to a neutral to negative bias in the short term, with the MACD just above its trigger and zero lines with weak momentum, while the stochastics have reached overbought area an
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, Gold

USDJPY consolidates gains after touching important resistance EURUSD begins to recover, but threats remain Will gold’s bull run take a breather after record high?   Core PCE inflation --> USDJPY The Bank of Japan’s decision to exit negative interest rates did not provide a helping hand to the yen. Neither did the Fed’s unchanged projections of three rate cuts in 2024 weigh harshly on the US dollar, with USDJPY barely losing ground within the 151.00 territory after marki
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Technical Analysis – EURCHF rallies towards 8-month high

EURCHF looks strongly bullish this year Technical oscillators confirm upside tendency EURCHF has added almost 6% since the beginning of the year, recording a new eight-month high of 0.9786. The pair is creating a steep upward tendency with no notable bearish corrections so far in 2024. The RSI indicator is standing in the overbought region and is still pointing north, while the MACD is extending its positive momentum above its trigger and zero lines.
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