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Previews

XM Research - 2 days ago

Can Australian labour data send the aussie higher? – Preview

Forecasts suggest higher unemployment rate Employment change expected to tick higher Aussie holds within trading range, data due on Thursday at 01:30 GMT Upon being dissatisfied with the RBA's choice to adopt a neutral position, Australian dollar traders will now redirect their attention towards Thursday's employment report.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Will UK jobs data give any meaningful signals? – Preview

UK set to report further softening in employment conditions Data accuracy issues persist, but wage growth could still move the pound GBPUSD needs to gain buying confidence above 1.2700   BoE leans towards a rate cut The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates steady at a 16-year high of 5.25% last Thursday as widely expected, and although it did not pre-commit its future policy path, it telegraphed that a summer rate cut is on the cards.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

US CPI report may show the next direction of EURUSD UK employment data may take GBPUSD down Is Australia labour report strong enough to take AUDUSD out of trading range? US CPI data --> EURUSD During the previous week's meeting, the Federal Reserve displayed a less aggressive stance than anticipated, as Chair Powell explicitly stated that there would be no increases in interest rates and suggested that they are still inclined towards reducing rates.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Could Wednesday’s CPI report change the Fed's rate outlook? – Preview

US CPI inflation forecast to have eased a bit in April Retail sales to reveal the domestic demand’s strength Dollar might benefit from a strong inflation print but stocks could suffer The April CPI report will be released on Wednesday 12:30 GMT The aggressive deceleration in US inflation seen during 2022 has paused over the past few months with CPI proving stickier than widely expected.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Week Ahead – US inflation numbers to shake Fed rate cut bets

Fed rate-cut speculators rest hopes on US inflation data After dovish BoE, pound traders turn to UK job numbers Will a strong labor market convince the RBA to hike? More Chinese data on tap amid signs of slow Q2 start Spotlight turns to US CPI numbers At last week’s meeting, the Fed appeared less hawkish than expected, with Chair Powell ruling out rate hikes and hinting that they are still leaning towards cuts.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD

Strengthening rate cut projections weigh on USDJPY; upward pattern intact above 151.90 GBPUSD faces rejection near familiar resistance of 1.2630 ahead of BoE policy announcement USDCAD trends within a short-term bearish channel; key support level at 1.3530   Intervention risks, Fed talk --> USDJPY The week ahead will be light in terms of US data releases, but a couple of Fed speakers will be on the wires to comment on monetary policy and perhaps fuel fresh volatility in the
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Could the BoE adopt a more dovish stance on Thursday? – Preview

The BoE meets on Thursday; no interest rate change is expected Quarterly projections could support market expectations for rate cuts Pound in need of a boost against the euro Decision time for the BoE The Bank of England will hold its third gathering for 2024 on Thursday. The press statement, the meeting’s minutes and the Monetary Policy Report will be published at 11:00 GMT, with the important press conference following 30 minutes later.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week

Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions   BoE - No rate cuts yet Britain’s economy seems to have escaped the shallow recession it fell into last year, and has finally entered the recovery phase.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

RBA decision: will a rate hike be back on the table? – Preview

RBA meets amid uptick in Australian inflation Muddied economic outlook may complicate policy path Aussie remains choppy ahead of Tuesday's decision (04:30 GMT) Inflation setback The Reserve Bank of Australia is no stranger to policy flip-flops and the May decision may just add to the tally. Having dropped their tightening bias as recently as the last meeting in March, policymakers are staring at an unpleasant inflation picture.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will the post-FOMC jobs report move the dollar? – Preview

US nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release on Friday 12:30 GMT Another solid report could question rate cuts if Powell provides no clear guidance EURUSD at risk of plunging towards April’s low of 1.0600   April's nonfarm payrolls might cause volatility  Friday will be a nonfarm payrolls day and investors expect the economy to have added 243k new job positions in April, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.8% and wage growth stable at 0.3% m/m.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, Oil

USDJPY maintains bullish pattern after suspected intervention EURUSD remains trapped below 20-SMA ahead of flash CPI WTI oil futures wait for the next bullish catalyst below key resistance   FOMC policy meeting --> USDJPY The US calendar might send some important messages this week, particularly on Wednesday when the Fed announces its rate decision.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Can Chinese PMIs solidify the economy’s recovery prospects? – Preview

Important Chinese PMI surveys on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed meeting Improvement across the board could be on the cards after positive GDP print Aussie could benefit against the US dollar Data to be released on Tuesday at 01.30 and 01.45 GMT respectively A Fed-dominated week The market’s focus next week will be firmly on Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the euro Chinese PMIs and New Zealand employment to be watched too Will the Fed put rate cut hopes in more peril? The upcoming week looks sure to be an action-packed one for the US dollar, as besides an FOMC meeting and the April jobs report, there’s a flurry of other data on the US agenda that will gi
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Fed faces dilemma amid sticky inflation and slowing economy – Preview

Investors scale back Fed rate cut bets as inflation stays hot But economic growth slows more than expected in Q1 Will the Fed continue to signal patience? The Committee decides on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT Stubborn inflation weighs on rate cut bets When they last met, Fed officials left interest rates untouched as it was widely expected, and although they revised up their growth and inflation projections, they continued pointing to three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Euro turns to GDP and inflation data for a lifeline – Preview

Euro loses ground as European Central Bank signals rate cuts But only against US dollar - holds strong against pound and yen Eurozone GDP and inflation stats on Tuesday will decide what’s next Imminent rate cuts bruise euro It’s been a difficult year for the euro, which has already declined 3% against the dollar as the economic divergence between the Eurozone and the United States has convinced investors the ECB is set to cut interest rates faster and deeper than the Fed.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Will the BoJ disappoint once again? – Preview

BoJ manages to upset the market even with historic hike Yen tumbles to 34-year low even as market prices in summer hike Will another disappointment trigger yen intervention? The Bank meets on Friday at 03:00 GMT To stand pat after historic hike The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is very likely to keep interest rates untouched on Friday following a historic decision last month to take borrowing costs out of negative territory and to abolish its yield curve control policy.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Inflation numbers will be investors’ focal point in Australia this week Doubts about RBA rate cuts have not been much support to the aussie Will Wednesday’s CPI data (01:30 GMT) alter the policy outlook? Is inflation levelling off? Worries about sticky inflation have been a major frustration for the Reserve Bank of Australia, prompting it to hike rates one more time back in November in an unexpected move.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – Dollar index, USDJPY, EURUSD

Will US GDP boost the dollar index? Yen looks steady ahead of BoJ decision Eurozone flash PMIs may halt EURUSD’s bearish actions US GDP --> Dollar index The most significant event of the week is expected to take place on Thursday with the preliminary release of US GDP for the first quarter. The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the previous quarter.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Eurozone PMIs eyed as euro’s focus turns to rate cuts beyond June – Preview

Eurozone appears to be on the mend but ECB still on track to cut in June For the euro, rate outlook beyond June increasingly more important Flash PMI readings for April are due on Tuesday, 08:00 GMT Will PMIs confirm tepid recovery signs? The euro area economy stagnated in the middle of 2023 but narrowly managed to dodge a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Supercharged US dollar turns to GDP growth data – Preview

Dollar goes on a rampage as traders unwind Fed rate cut bets Risk aversion in stock markets amid Iran tensions helps too Upcoming US releases will decide whether rally can go further   Dollar shines bright It’s been a phenomenal year for the US dollar so far. The greenback has gained more than 4% against a basket of currencies, turbocharged by a series of solid economic readings that have forced investors to dial back bets of imminent Fed rate cuts.  Heavy government sp
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