Technical Analysis – EURUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.1900; trend bearish



EURUSD is struggling to set a foothold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) despite inching above that line to reach an almost three-week high of 1.1926 last week. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2242 – 1.1703 down leg seems to be another struggle in the neighborhood, preventing any close above the 1.1900 level.

The technical indicators keep reflecting some caution in the market as the RSI is striving to extend beyond the 50 neutral mark and the Stochastics are already flattening in the overbought territory. The persisting downside pressure is also evident in the Ichimoku lines, which moved to the sidelines before erasing the negative gap between them. Yet, given the recent improvement in those indicators and the positive momentum in the MACD, some optimism is still alive.

If the 1.1900 hurdle gives way, the price may find a tougher obstacle around the 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibonacci of 1.1972. A break above that bar, and particularly a close above 1.2000, could add fuel to the rally, sending the pair quickly into the 1.2070 – 1.2090 region formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.2070 and the surface of the Ichimoku cloud. Still, the bearish trend will not end unless the pair posts a higher high above 1.2175. Note that the 20- and 200-day SMAs have recently bearishly crossed each other, reducing the case for a trend reversal.

Should the bears take over, the 20-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1830 could first come into view. Failure to pivot here may activate fresh selling orders towards the 1.1760 – 1.1700 support region, where any violation would shift the spotlight straight to the 1.1620- 1.1600 key territory.

Summarizing, EURUSD has yet to confirm a bullish bias in the short-term picture despite the rebound of 1.1700. A close above 1.1972 could provide credence to the recent bullish action, while a drop below 1.1830 could confirm additional negative corrections.  


Latest News

Technical Analysis – NZDUSD steers to 13-month low levels but still neutral



Technical Analysis – GBPJPY nears key support as January's sell-off sharpens


Technical Analysis – USDCAD finds significant support at 200-day SMA for further declines


Technical Analysis – EURJPY bearish as it dips beneath 200-MA

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website. Read more or change your cookie settings.

Risk Warning: Your capital is at risk. Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone. Please consider our Risk Disclosure.