Technical Analysis – WTI futures resume hike with weakened bullish backing

WTI oil futures’ latest upside push is confronting the upper Bollinger band around 65.38, although current positive impetus appears somewhat frail. Not too far back the commodity formed a support base around 57.25-58.14 after retreating from the 28½-month peak of 67.96 and has since then been adhering to the lower boundary of an ascending channel. The climbing simple moving averages (SMAs) are defending the bullish structure, while the slight fading in the slope of the 50-day SMA is suggesting that the price could retest the lower band of the channel.

The short-term oscillators are reflecting some waning in positive momentum, suggesting sellers are seizing the upper hand for now. The MACD, in the positive region, is holding above its red trigger line, while the RSI is struggling to improve further in bullish territory. The stochastic oscillator’s %K line has dipped back below the 80 level and is promoting growing negative price action.

If selling interest persists, support may originate from the nearby lower frontier of the channel around the 63.00 mark and the 50-day SMA, which has converged with the mid-Bollinger band currently at the 62.00 level. Breaking the bottom limit of the channel, next support could arise from the 60.06 barrier, which happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 34.02 until 67.96. A dive beyond this too could encourage sellers to challenge the reinforced support foundation of 57.25-58.14.

If buyers regain control, immediate resistance may develop from the upper Bollinger band at 65.38 before the bulls target the 66.42 high and the multi-year peak of 67.96. Conquering the top could bolster buying interest, driving the price towards the 70.00-70.49 resistance band. An extension past this could then aim for the 72.87 barrier.

Summarizing, oil’s positive picture may endure as long as the price remains locked within the confines of the bullish channel. Yet, a retraction below the support zone of 53.78-55.05 could trigger strong negative tendencies.

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