Australia, NZ dlrs fight to hold new range, China data a drag
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, May 17 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars were looking to lock into a new higher trading range on Friday after clearing major chart barriers this week, while bonds celebrated revived hopes for rate cuts at home and abroad.
However, sentiment was tested by a mixed batch of Chinese economic data released on Friday, as April industrial output beat expectations, only for retail sales to miss.
Figures on property investment and house prices were also bearish, underlining the urgent need for more fiscal support from Beijing.
That saw the Aussie edge back a little to $0.6670 AUD=D3, though it was still up 1.0% for the week and above resistance at $0.6650. The next hurdles stand at $0.6715 and $0.6735, with support at $0.6630.
The kiwi dollar also eased a touch to $0.6110 NZD=D3, but was still 1.5% higher for the week as speculators were caught short by this latest squeeze. It also cleared resistance at $0.6084 and is now aiming for $0.6218.
"The anatomy of range breakouts following upside breaks from prior low volatility range trading since 2000, show the average maximum AUD gain during the following 60 days was 2.75 cents," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.
Both currencies have benefited from a slowdown in U.S. inflation that led investors to narrow the odds on a Federal Reserve rate cut by September.
Encouraged by a soft reading on Australian unemployment, markets also priced out any chance of a domestic rate hike this year, a big shift from early in the month when the probability had been as high as 40%. 0#RBAWATCH
Now, futures imply a 46% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower rates by December, and a move is fully priced in by next April.
"We continue forecast three 25bp RBA rate cuts, from November, then February and May, following recent developments," said Andrew Ticehurst, an economist at Nomura.
"We remain long the 10-year Australian government bond versus the US 10-year, targeting a 20bp move by mid-August, with a moderate conviction level."
Yields on Australian 10-year bonds AU10YT=RR dropped 11 basis points on the week to 4.221%, touching a one-month low and leaving them 14 basis points below their U.S. counterpart.
Three-year bond futures YTTc1 rallied 11 ticks for the week to 96.150.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a policy meeting on May 22 and is seen as certain to hold rates at 5.5%, with the main question being whether it will change the projected outlook for rates out to next year.
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed
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