JPM says it would sell food retail rally, cuts Carrefour
** J.P.Morgan says it findsthe recent rally in food retail stock as "technical" and not necessarily driven by improved fundamentals as margin reset, deflation risks persist
** The sector has been pulled up -- about 10% in two weeks, 10% discount to historic level -- by the overall market rally, it says, adding LFLs are yet to pull through while deflation risk persists
** "Valuations do not reflect the risk of negative LFLs & earnings downgrades in the ST (short term)," the broker says, keeping its estimates for the sector 5-10% below consensus expectations
** It cuts Carrefour CARR.PA to "underweight" from "neutral" citing worsened fundamentals, as margin maximization strategy resulted in severe market share loss
** Ahold-Delhaize's AD.AS U.S. performance remains "underwhelming", the broker says, while it expectsB&M's BMEB.L implied H2 margin trends and 2025 outlook to disappoint the market, and keeps its "underweight" rating on both
** It places the three stocks on its "Negative Catalyst Watch"
** JPM keeps "overweight" on Jeronimo JMT.LS and Colruyt COLR.BR saying both companies have reset their margins, which it considers "a key premise to own food retail stocks"
** "The two only companies that have sustainably created value organically in the space over time," it adds
(Reporting Clement Martinot)
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