NY Fed survey finds general expectations of higher inflation
By Michael S. Derby
May 13 (Reuters) -Americans last month braced for generally higher inflation pressures over the next few years and accelerating home price increases, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The bank said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations that respondents project inflation a year from now at 3.3% from March’s 3%, while inflation three years from now is seen moderating to an expected 2.8% rise from the prior month’s 2.9%. Five-year ahead inflation was seen at 2.8%, versus March’s 2.6%.
The Fed's inflation target is 2% and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, stood at a 2.7% year-over-year rise in March, up from 2.5% in February.
In the survey, respondents also reported expecting high price pressures a year from now across all measured categories, including rent, food, gasoline and medical costs. The expected rise in home prices a year from now rose to its highest level since July 2022, at a 3.3% increase from the 3% that had prevailed for the prior seven months.
While the report found respondents expecting smaller future earnings and income gains it found a projection that future spending would rise. It also found households more worried about their personal financial situations even as they were more upbeat about their access to credit. The survey also found mixed views over the job market, with the lowest level of respondents saying they could get a job if they lost one since April 2021.
The New York Fed report arrives as the Fed is struggling to make sense of unexpectedly sticky price pressures over the start of the year. That landscape is complicating officials’ expectation that they would be able to cut interest rates this year.
The tick up in the expected path of prices in the near- and longer-term further challenges the outlook, as Fed officials and many private sector forecasters believe that where the public expects inflation to go in the future exerts a strong influence on where it stands today.
In a separate report, the Cleveland Fed said inflation expectations among business leaders rose during the second quarter, with executives saying they see the consumer price index up by 3.8% over the next year, from the 3.4% gain they projected in the first quarter.
Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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