Societe Generale likes USD/CAD options to target 1.4000
May 23 (Reuters) -Following another drop in the Canadian CPI this week, Societe Generale highlights the potential for USD/CAD to move toward 1.4000, driven by policy divergence between the U.S. and Canada, and discusses a trade strategy using FX options.
One of the banks option traders likes the 3-month expiry as it would capture the Bank of Canada policy meeting outcomes on June 5 and July 24, with the latter being the more likely for the central bank to announce a rate cut. However, the lesser probability of a June cut would increase FX volatility if realised.
An implied volatility premium for high strikes over low strikes (CAD puts over calls) suggests USD/CAD volatility would increase on a higher spot and therefore help to cheapen options that include the sale of CAD puts.
With USD/CAD spot at 1.3650, Societe Generale suggests buying a 1-month expiry one-touch option at 12.5% of total payout since it would benefit from a June rate cut and subsequent spot gains.
To trade a July rate cut, the bank advocates buying a 3-month expiry 1.3850 CAD put and selling a 1.4000 CAD put against for a net premium of just 0.22%.
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Daily USD/CAD=D3 https://tmsnrt.rs/3WTJi9E
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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