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US natgas edges up from 9-month low on Friday, but still down 23% for week



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Adds latest prices, trader comments in paragraphs 2-4

By Scott DiSavino

Feb 2 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday onforecasts for the return of seasonallycolder weather and higher heating demand later this month, a day after prices closedat a nine-month low.

That put thefront-month down about 23% for the week after it gained about 8% last week and dropped about 24% two weeks ago.

Traders noted prices gained on Friday even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through mid-February, gas output was risingas more wells return to service after a mid-January freeze, and theamount of gas flowing to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG)export plants remainedlow due to a unit outageat Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 2.9 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.079 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Thursday, the contract settled at its lowest since April 13, 2023.

That kept the front-month intechnically oversold territory for a fourth day in a row.

Risingprice volatility has increased interest in gas trading in recent weeks, boosting open interest in NYMEX futures to 1.48 million contracts on Jan. 31, the most since February 2020 for a second day in a row.

In other news, a top U.S. Energy Department official will testify at the Feb. 8 Senate Energy Committee hearing looking into President Joe Biden'spause on new approvals for LNG exports.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 104.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.0 bcfd in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal through at least Feb. 15 before turning near normal on Feb. 16-17.

LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 126.6 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week and 124.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 13.9 in January. That was still below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December.

Analysts said U.S. LNG feedgas would likely not revisit record levels until Freeport LNG returns to full power, which is expected to occur in mid- to late-February.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU


Week ended Feb 2 Forecast

Week ended Jan 26 Actual

Year ago Feb 2

Five-year average

Feb 2

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-86

-197

-208

-193

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,573

2,659

2,397

2,336

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

10.1%

5.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.07

2.05

2.44

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

9.25

9.19

16.52

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

9.46

9.53

16.87

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

333

337

415

422

415

U.S. GFS CDDs

1

1

5

5

4

U.S. GFS TDDs

334

338

420

427

419

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

103.2

104.8

104.8

97.8

92.4

U.S. Imports from Canada

10.0

9.4

9.7

9.3

9.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Total U.S. Supply

113.2

114.2

114.5

107.1

101.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

3.4

3.6

2.1

2.7

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.9

6.6

6.4

5.6

5.2

U.S. LNG Exports

13.7

14.1

13.8

12.7

8.4

U.S. Commercial

18.2

13.8

13.9

19.2

16.3

U.S. Residential

30.9

21.8

23.8

33.1

27.6

U.S. Power Plant

38.7

34.5

32.3

34.5

29.3

U.S. Industrial

26.2

24.5

24.4

26.3

25.4

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

3.3

2.7

2.7

3.3

2.7

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

122.5

102.6

101.3

121.6

106.7

Total U.S. Demand

144.5

126.6

125.1

142.0

123.0







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

79

79

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

79

79

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

80

80

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Feb 2

Week ended Jan 26

Week ended Jan 19

Week ended Jan 12

Week ended Jan 5

Wind

8

7

10

14

8

Solar

3

2

2

2

2

Hydro

7

6

6

6

6

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

43

39

38

42

Coal

18

22

23

19

19

Nuclear

20

19

17

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.15

2.19


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.90

1.95


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.46

3.13


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.75

1.70


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.89

1.90

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

4.40

2.77


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.82

2.95


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.60

1.45



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.34

1.36



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

44.50

44.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

19.25

27.00

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

17.00

15.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

43.75

51.00


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

30.50

46.25


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

33.75

48.50



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio and David Ljunggren

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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