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US natgas prices climb 3% on rising LNG feedgas, cooler forecast



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

April 18 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected and with an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, including Freeport LNG.

That price rise also came after a federal report showed last week's storage increase was smaller than usual as low gas prices so far this year has prompted several producers to cut output.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 12.

That was in line with the 50-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 61 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

The build left stockpiles at around 36% above normal levels for this time of year.

U.S. gas production fell by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.5 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $1.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative 88 cents per mmBtu on April 17, up from negative $1.13 on April 16 and a near four-year low of negative $2.86 on April 15, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal.

Spot power and gas prices have traded below zero in several parts of the country, including Texas, California and Arizona, in recent weeks.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.8 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary three-month low of 95.8 bcfd on Thursday.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 26 before turning warmer than normal from April 27-May 3.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.8 bcfd this week to 95.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 10.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from 10.1 bcfd on Wednesday and a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in Louisiana, and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.

Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased to all of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach 0.3 bcfd on Thursday, up from near zero over the prior seven days.

Week ended Apr 12 Actual

Week ended Apr 5 Actual

Year ago Apr 12

Five-year average

Apr 12

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+50

+24

+61

+61

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,333

2,283

1,909

1,711

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

36.4%

38.4%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.76

1.71

2.20

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.04

9.85

13.49

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

10.75

11.26

12.34

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

110

100

147

141

126

U.S. GFS CDDs

59

55

31

40

43

U.S. GFS TDDs

169

155

178

181

169

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.9

97.2

97.1

101.3

95.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.2

6.8

7.0

7.6

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.1

104.0

104.1

108.9

102.8

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.7

2.7

2.7

1.9

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.5

6.6

6.3

6.0

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

10.7

11.1

14.4

10.1

U.S. Commercial

8.2

6.6

7.3

7.4

8.4

U.S. Residential

11.2

7.9

9.2

9.6

11.8

U.S. Power Plant

27.9

28.0

29.2

25.6

22.7

U.S. Industrial

23.1

22.4

23.1

21.5

25.9

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

77.5

71.8

75.8

71.2

76.2

Total U.S. Demand

99.3

91.8

95.9

93.5

94.1







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

80

81

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

81

82

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

82

82

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Apr 19

Week ended Apr 12

Week ended Apr 5

Week ended Mar 29

Week ended Mar 22

Wind

18

16

15

16

13

Solar

7

6

5

5

5

Hydro

7

7

7

8

8

Other

2

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

37

38

38

40

Coal

13

13

13

13

13

Nuclear

19

20

20

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.50

1.38


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.41

1.35


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.15

2.07


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.28

1.27


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.32

1.22


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.44

1.40


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.07

2.10


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-0.88

-1.13



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.90

0.87



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

32.50

27.25

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

40.50

31.75

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

20.50

68.75


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

26.25

19.75


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

17.75

11.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

15.25

1.75



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Evans

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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