US natgas prices climb 3% on rising LNG feedgas, cooler forecast
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
April 18 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected and with an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, including Freeport LNG.
That price rise also came after a federal report showed last week's storage increase was smaller than usual as low gas prices so far this year has prompted several producers to cut output.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 12.
That was in line with the 50-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 61 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
The build left stockpiles at around 36% above normal levels for this time of year.
U.S. gas production fell by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.5 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $1.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative 88 cents per mmBtu on April 17, up from negative $1.13 on April 16 and a near four-year low of negative $2.86 on April 15, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal.
Spot power and gas prices have traded below zero in several parts of the country, including Texas, California and Arizona, in recent weeks.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.8 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary three-month low of 95.8 bcfd on Thursday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 26 before turning warmer than normal from April 27-May 3.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.8 bcfd this week to 95.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 10.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from 10.1 bcfd on Wednesday and a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in Louisiana, and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.
Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased to all of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach 0.3 bcfd on Thursday, up from near zero over the prior seven days.
Week ended Apr 12 Actual | Week ended Apr 5 Actual | Year ago Apr 12 | Five-year average Apr 12 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +50 | +24 | +61 | +61 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,333 | 2,283 | 1,909 | 1,711 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 36.4% | 38.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.76 | 1.71 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.04 | 9.85 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.75 | 11.26 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 110 | 100 | 147 | 141 | 126 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 59 | 55 | 31 | 40 | 43 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 169 | 155 | 178 | 181 | 169 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 98.9 | 97.2 | 97.1 | 101.3 | 95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 106.1 | 104.0 | 104.1 | 108.9 | 102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 10.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 |
U.S. Residential | 11.2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 27.9 | 28.0 | 29.2 | 25.6 | 22.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 22.4 | 23.1 | 21.5 | 25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.5 | 71.8 | 75.8 | 71.2 | 76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.3 | 91.8 | 95.9 | 93.5 | 94.1 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 80 | 81 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 81 | 82 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 | Week ended Mar 29 | Week ended Mar 22 | |
Wind | 18 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Other | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 40 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.50 | 1.38 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.41 | 1.35 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.15 | 2.07 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.28 | 1.27 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.32 | 1.22 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.44 | 1.40 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.07 | 2.10 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.88 | -1.13 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.90 | 0.87 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 32.50 | 27.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 40.50 | 31.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 20.50 | 68.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 26.25 | 19.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 17.75 | 11.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 15.25 | 1.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Evans
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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