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US natgas prices rise 5% on larger-than-expected storage withdrawal



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Corrects March 14 copy to say 5% not 8% in the headline, lead paragraph and second paragraph

March 14 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rebounded from an early two-week low to gain 5%on Thursday after a weekly report showed a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.3 cents, or 5%,to settle at $1.741 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a larger-than-expected 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 8.

That was more than the 3-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with a withdrawal of 65 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average decrease of 87 bcf for this time of year.

The decline left gas stockpiles about 37% above normal levels for this time of year.

The EIA report showed "a bigger withdrawal than expected, but it is still a small withdrawal compared to historical averages", said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial. "It is not really a bullish number," he said.

"The weather's been very mild even for this time of year and there are some expectations for a little bit of a cold front to come through, so that might help the market," he added.

Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Those low prices will boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024, but cause gas production to drop for the first year since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand for the fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest outlook.

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Output is down as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delay well completions and cut back on other drilling activities.

EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer, and Chesapeake will soon become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 109.2 bcfd this week to 111.4 bcfd next week, lower than its outlook on Wednesday.



Week ended Mar 8 Actual

Week ended Mar 1 Actual

Year ago Mar 8

Five-year average

Mar 8

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-9

-40

-65

-87

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,325

2,334

1,989

1,696

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

37.1%

30.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.65

1.67

2.41

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

8.00

7.91

13.72

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

8.48

8.47

13.59

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

235

236

291

303

307

U.S. GFS CDDs

13

12

17

11

9

U.S. GFS TDDs

248

248

308

314

316

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

100.3

100.3

100.6

101.7

95.1

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.3

7.6

7.9

8.6

8.4

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

107.6

107.8

108.5

110.3

103.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.7

3.8

3.8

2.7

3.0

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

6.5

6.4

5.2

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

13.4

13.1

12.6

13.2

9.2

U.S. Commercial

10.5

10.4

11.0

14.3

12.3

U.S. Residential

15.8

15.1

16.0

22.8

19.4

U.S. Power Plant

30.6

29.3

30.0

30.4

23.8

U.S. Industrial

23.5

23.6

24.2

24.1

26.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

87.8

85.8

88.7

98.9

89.7

Total U.S. Demand

111.6

109.2

111.4

120.0

107.3







U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Mar 15

Week ended Mar 8

Week ended Mar 1

Week ended Feb 23

Week ended Feb 16

Wind

15

15

16

13

11

Solar

5

4

4

4

4

Hydro

8

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

38

39

38

40

41

Coal

12

13

16

15

16

Nuclear

21

21

21

20

21

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.25

1.57


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.09

1.27


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.41

2.34


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.02

1.24


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.18

1.29


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.20

1.35


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.77

1.91


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.09

0.20



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.52

1.20



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

21.25

24.00

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

18.75

25.50

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

32.75

16.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

37.69

40.29


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

8.50

3.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

6.25

2.25




Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Jan Harvey

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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