US natgas prices rise 5% on larger-than-expected storage withdrawal
Corrects March 14 copy to say 5% not 8% in the headline, lead paragraph and second paragraph
March 14 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rebounded from an early two-week low to gain 5%on Thursday after a weekly report showed a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.3 cents, or 5%,to settle at $1.741 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a larger-than-expected 9 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 8.
That was more than the 3-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, and compares with a withdrawal of 65 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average decrease of 87 bcf for this time of year.
The decline left gas stockpiles about 37% above normal levels for this time of year.
The EIA report showed "a bigger withdrawal than expected, but it is still a small withdrawal compared to historical averages", said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial. "It is not really a bullish number," he said.
"The weather's been very mild even for this time of year and there are some expectations for a little bit of a cold front to come through, so that might help the market," he added.
Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.
Those low prices will boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024, but cause gas production to drop for the first year since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand for the fuel, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest outlook.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Output is down as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delay well completions and cut back on other drilling activities.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer, and Chesapeake will soon become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 109.2 bcfd this week to 111.4 bcfd next week, lower than its outlook on Wednesday.
Week ended Mar 8 Actual | Week ended Mar 1 Actual | Year ago Mar 8 | Five-year average Mar 8 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -9 | -40 | -65 | -87 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,325 | 2,334 | 1,989 | 1,696 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 37.1% | 30.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 2.41 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 8.00 | 7.91 | 13.72 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 8.48 | 8.47 | 13.59 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 235 | 236 | 291 | 303 | 307 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 13 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 9 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 248 | 248 | 308 | 314 | 316 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 100.3 | 100.3 | 100.6 | 101.7 | 95.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.3 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 107.6 | 107.8 | 108.5 | 110.3 | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.4 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 9.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 10.5 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 14.3 | 12.3 |
U.S. Residential | 15.8 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 22.8 | 19.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 30.6 | 29.3 | 30.0 | 30.4 | 23.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.5 | 23.6 | 24.2 | 24.1 | 26.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 87.8 | 85.8 | 88.7 | 98.9 | 89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand | 111.6 | 109.2 | 111.4 | 120.0 | 107.3 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 15 | Week ended Mar 8 | Week ended Mar 1 | Week ended Feb 23 | Week ended Feb 16 | |
Wind | 15 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 39 | 38 | 40 | 41 |
Coal | 12 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
Nuclear | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.25 | 1.57 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.09 | 1.27 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.41 | 2.34 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.02 | 1.24 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.18 | 1.29 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.20 | 1.35 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.77 | 1.91 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.09 | 0.20 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.52 | 1.20 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 21.25 | 24.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 18.75 | 25.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 32.75 | 16.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 37.69 | 40.29 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 8.50 | 3.75 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 6.25 | 2.25 |
Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Jan Harvey
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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