US natgas prices ease 1% on smaller-than-expected output decline
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
April 3 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% onWednesday on revised forecasts calling for a smaller output decline so far this month, ample amounts of gas in storage and forecastsfor the weather to turn mild next week.
The price decline came despite forecasts for moredemand over the next two weeks than previously expected and arise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.1 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $1.841 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 6.
Gas prices have been mostly depressed for months - hitting an intraday low of $1.481 per mmBtu on March 26, their lowest since June 2020 - after a mild winter with record output allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.
Analysts estimated current gas stockpiles were around 39% above normal levels. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Low prices should boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024 but cut production for the first time since COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest outlook.
Output was already down by around 8% since the start of the year as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities.
In other news, landowners in Virginia sought help from the U.S. Supreme Court in a dispute againstEquitrans Midstream's ETRN.N Mountain Valley pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia.
Analysts at government policy adviser Capstone said in a note that the Supreme Court was unlikely to review a lower court's dismissal of the landowners' lawsuit, which should allow Equitrans to complete the long-delayed, roughly $7.6 billion pipeline in the second quarter.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fellto an average of 98.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
As more data became available, LSEG reduced the estimated output decline so far in April from a preliminary 4.1 bcfd on Tuesday to 2.6 bcfd on Wednesday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 would remain colder than normal through April 7 before turning warmer than normal from April 8-18.
With seasonally warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 103.9 bcfd this week to 102.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fellto an average of 12.0 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from a 10-week low of 11.3 bcfd on Tuesday to 12.1 bcfd on Wednesday as flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana increase. In Texas however, flows to Cheniere's Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG's plant remained reduced.
Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until all three liquefaction trains at Freeport return to service.
Freeport has said it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating. Each Freeport train can turn about 0.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.
Week ended Mar 29 Forecast | Week ended Mar 22Actual | Year ago Mar 29 | Five-year average Mar 29 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -38 | -36 | -29 | -1 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,258 | 2,296 | 1,837 | 1,626 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 38.9% | 41.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 8.07 | 8.27 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.47 | 9.54 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 164 | 167 | 146 | 192 | 180 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 23 | 20 | 34 | 28 | 27 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 187 | 187 | 180 | 220 | 207 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 100.5 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 101.5 | 95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 108.2 | 106.9 | 106.7 | 108.9 | 102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 10.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 11.7 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.4 |
U.S. Residential | 17.5 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.3 | 28.2 | 28.4 | 28.9 | 22.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.5 | 23.5 | 23.4 | 21.9 | 25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 90.5 | 82.3 | 80.9 | 80.8 | 76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 113.0 | 103.9 | 102.5 | 102.6 | 94.1 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 82 | 83 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 84 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 84 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 5 | Week ended Mar 29 | Week ended Mar 22 | Week ended Mar 15 | Week ended Mar 8 | |
Wind | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 38 | 40 | 38 | 39 |
Coal | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.65 | 1.64 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.83 | 1.66 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.36 | 2.33 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.58 | 1.55 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.72 | 1.64 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.05 | 1.87 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.97 | 1.95 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.48 | 1.25 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.19 | 1.18 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 34.50 | 27.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 32.50 | 31.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 33.00 | 17.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 33.00 | 27.33 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | -3.75 | -4.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | -7.50 | -4.25 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey and Leslie Adler
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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