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US natgas prices ease 1% on smaller-than-expected output decline



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

April 3 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% onWednesday on revised forecasts calling for a smaller output decline so far this month, ample amounts of gas in storage and forecastsfor the weather to turn mild next week.

The price decline came despite forecasts for moredemand over the next two weeks than previously expected and arise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.1 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $1.841 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 6.

Gas prices have been mostly depressed for months - hitting an intraday low of $1.481 per mmBtu on March 26, their lowest since June 2020 - after a mild winter with record output allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Analysts estimated current gas stockpiles were around 39% above normal levels. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Low prices should boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024 but cut production for the first time since COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest outlook.

Output was already down by around 8% since the start of the year as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities.

In other news, landowners in Virginia sought help from the U.S. Supreme Court in a dispute againstEquitrans Midstream's ETRN.N Mountain Valley pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia.

Analysts at government policy adviser Capstone said in a note that the Supreme Court was unlikely to review a lower court's dismissal of the landowners' lawsuit, which should allow Equitrans to complete the long-delayed, roughly $7.6 billion pipeline in the second quarter.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fellto an average of 98.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.

As more data became available, LSEG reduced the estimated output decline so far in April from a preliminary 4.1 bcfd on Tuesday to 2.6 bcfd on Wednesday.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 would remain colder than normal through April 7 before turning warmer than normal from April 8-18.

With seasonally warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 103.9 bcfd this week to 102.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fellto an average of 12.0 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from a 10-week low of 11.3 bcfd on Tuesday to 12.1 bcfd on Wednesday as flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana increase. In Texas however, flows to Cheniere's Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG's plant remained reduced.

Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until all three liquefaction trains at Freeport return to service.

Freeport has said it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating. Each Freeport train can turn about 0.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Week ended Mar 29 Forecast

Week ended Mar 22Actual

Year ago Mar 29

Five-year average

Mar 29

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-38

-36

-29

-1

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,258

2,296

1,837

1,626

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

38.9%

41.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.86

1.86

2.20

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

8.07

8.27

13.49

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

9.47

9.54

12.34

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

164

167

146

192

180

U.S. GFS CDDs

23

20

34

28

27

U.S. GFS TDDs

187

187

180

220

207

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

100.5

99.6

99.7

101.5

95.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.7

7.3

7.0

7.4

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

108.2

106.9

106.7

108.9

102.8

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.4

2.9

2.5

2.0

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.2

6.2

6.2

5.9

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

12.9

12.5

12.9

13.9

10.1

U.S. Commercial

11.7

9.6

9.0

9.3

8.4

U.S. Residential

17.5

13.8

12.8

13.5

11.8

U.S. Power Plant

29.3

28.2

28.4

28.9

22.7

U.S. Industrial

24.5

23.5

23.4

21.9

25.9

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

90.5

82.3

80.9

80.8

76.2

Total U.S. Demand

113.0

103.9

102.5

102.6

94.1







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

82

83

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

83

84

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

83

84

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Apr 5

Week ended Mar 29

Week ended Mar 22

Week ended Mar 15

Week ended Mar 8

Wind

15

16

13

15

15

Solar

5

5

5

5

4

Hydro

8

8

8

8

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

38

38

40

38

39

Coal

12

13

13

12

13

Nuclear

21

19

20

21

21

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.65

1.64


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.83

1.66


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.36

2.33


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.58

1.55


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.72

1.64


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.05

1.87


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.97

1.95


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.48

1.25



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.19

1.18



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

34.50

27.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

32.50

31.00

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

33.00

17.75


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

33.00

27.33


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

-3.75

-4.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

-7.50

-4.25



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey and Leslie Adler

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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