US natgas prices extend gains on rising feedgas to Freeport LNG
April 30 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday, helped by forecasts for more demand than previously expected with an increase in feedgas to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 1.5 cents higher, or 0.7%, to $2.05 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:14 a.m. EDT, after marking its best day in over two years in its previous session. Prices are up around 16% for the month.
"Yesterday, we had a strong rally on expectations of LNG feedgas returning to more normal levels. We have seen a pause in the growth of energy feedgas this morning, so the rallies are taking a moment to catch their breath," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was at 12.8 bcfd as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG rose to 1.02 bcfd from 0.1 bcfd on Thursday, indicating that at least one of three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was exiting an outage.
Financial firm LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 93.0 bcfd next week, from 92.3 bcfd this week. Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 96.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March, according to LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
"The market will still need to contend with some eventual loosening in supplies again, possibly by week's end, that will force focus back onto a huge storage level," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero several times this spring due to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline maintenance that has trapped gas in Texas.
Meanwhile, Europe gas prices edged higher as falling demand due to warmer temperatures was offset by lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and curbed flows of gas from Norway due to maintenance. NG/EU
Week ended Apr 26 Forecast | Week ended Apr 19 Actual | Year ago Apr 26 | Five-year average Apr 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +92 | +62 | +72 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,472 | 2,425 | 2,048 | 1,842 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 34.2% | 37.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.08 | 1.94 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.36 | 8.84 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.21 | 10.33 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 53 | 56 | 153 | 134 | 136 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 77 | 81 | 29 | 42 | 39 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 130 | 137 | 182 | 176 | 175 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.3 | 96.5 | 96.8 | 103.1 | 95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.4 | 103.5 | 103.5 | 111.3 | 102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 10.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.4 |
U.S. Residential | 10.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.6 | 29.5 | 31.3 | 29.1 | 22.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.9 | 70.8 | 71.5 | 74.3 | 76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 97.4 | 92.3 | 93.0 | 95.9 | 94.1 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 | |
Wind | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.55 | 1.40 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.41 | 1.05 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.08 | 1.85 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.36 | 1.05 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.36 | 1.18 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.56 | 1.07 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.61 | 1.35 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.75 | 0.40 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.00 | 0.68 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 28.00 | 20.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 39.50 | 23.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 27.75 | 110.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 59.67 | 32.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 10.75 | -17.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 6.75 | -20.50 |
Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
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