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US natgas prices gain 3% to six-week high with extreme cold coming



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Jan 5 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas prices climbed about 3% to a six-week high onFriday forecasts that extreme cold weather in mid- to late January will boost demand for the fuel for heating to its highest since hitting a record during a winter storm in December 2022.

In addition to sky-high demand, extreme cold could cause production to drop by freezing oil and gas wells, pipes and other energy equipment, which the energy industry calls freeze-offs.

Traders also noted that gas prices were up for a fourth day in a row because output was already down since hitting record highs in December and as record amounts of gas continued to flow to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Prices rose despiteforecasts for mild weather this week and next, and ample amounts of gas in storage. Analysts said therewas currently about 12.1% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.2 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.893 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 22.

For the week, the front-month gainedabout 15% after sliding about 4% last week. That was the biggest weekly percentage gain since mid-June.

Even though the coldest part of winter was still coming, many traders said winter futures for November-March likely already peaked at $3.608 per mmBtu on Nov. 1 due primarily to recent record production and ample supplies of gas in storage.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.5 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected the nation's weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Jan. 11 before turning colder than normal from Jan. 12-20.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 135.0 bcfd this week to 135.9 bcfd next week and 150.1 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

On a daily basis, total U.S. demand, including exports, would reach 158.2 bcfd on Jan. 16, according to LSEG's latest forecasts. That would be the most since winter storm Elliott in December 2022 but would fall short of the daily all-time high of 162.5 bcfd on Dec. 23, 2022, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 5.5 bcfd so far in January, up from 4.6 bcfd in December but still well below the monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August.

Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise in coming months once U.S.-based New Fortress Energy's NFE.O plant in Altamira in Mexico starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into LNG for export.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.) in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

Week ended Jan 5 Forecast

Week ended Dec 29 Actual

Year ago Jan 5

Five-year average

Jan 5

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-123

-14

+11

-87

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,353

3,476

2,934

2,990

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

12.1%

13.0%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.75

2.82

3.42

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.10

10.83

19.79

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.56

11.50

24.34

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

473

467

328

439

445

U.S. GFS CDDs

1

1

5

4

3

U.S. GFS TDDs

474

468

333

443

448

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

108.8

107.9

107.4

100.7

93.8

U.S. Imports from Canada8

8.5

9.1

9.0

8.7

9.3

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

Total U.S. Supply

117.3

117.1

116.4

109.4

103.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.4

3.0

2.7

3.1

2.7

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.4

5.3

5.0

5.4

5.3

U.S. LNG Exports

14.7

14.7

14.7

11.9

8.9

U.S. Commercial

12.8

15.6

16.5

13.4

16.6

U.S. Residential

20.3

25.9

28.1

21.4

28.6

U.S. Power Plant

31.0

36.5

34.7

28.2

29.5

U.S. Industrial

24.3

25.6

25.6

24.0

25.6

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

96.4

112.1

113.4

95.4

108.7

Total U.S. Demand

120.0

135.0

135.9

115.8

125.6







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

78

79

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

80

80

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

81

81

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jan 5

Week ended Dec 29

Week ended Dec 22

Week ended Dec 15

Week ended Dec 8

Wind

8

11

11

11

12

Solar

2

2

2

3

3

Hydro

6

7

6

6

5

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

42

40

41

41

40

Coal

19

16

18

17

17

Nuclear

20

22

20

20

21

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.83

2.57


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.57

3.77


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

5.93

4.04


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.31

2.32


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.58

2.48

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

5.36

6.34

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

5.64

3.95

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

2.54

2.31

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.85

1.44


SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

58.75

52.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

42.50

43.75

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

23.00

19.50

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

57.25

63.67

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

55.75

35.00

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

56.25

41.75



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Jonathan Oatis

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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