US natgas prices jump to 12-week high on contract expiry, Freeport LNG return
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
April 29 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 12-week high on Monday with the start of the higher priced June contract as the front-month andforecasts for more demand than previously expected due in part toan increase in feedgas atFreeport LNG's export plant in Texas.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.7 cents, or 5.6%, from where the June contract closed on Friday to settle at $2.030 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Monday.
That was the front-month's highest close since Feb. 5 and put itup about 26% from where the May contract closed when it was still the front-month on Friday.
That was also thecontract's biggest daily percentage increase since January 2022 when it jumped by a record 46.5% around the time the front-month switched from February to March.
In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero several times over the past month or sodue to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline outages and other workthat has trapped gas in Texas.
In California, next-day power at South Path-15 (SP-15) EL-PK-SP15-SNL in Southern California fell to a record low of negative $20 per megawatt hour (MWh) on April 26, down from positive $4 on April 25. That compares with the prior all-time low of negative $15 on April 5.
Next-day gas at the Southern California Border NG-SCL-CGT-SNL fell to positive$1.35 per mmBtu, its lowest since hitting a record low of $1.14 in June 2019, while spot gas at the PG&E hub NG-CG-PGE-SN in Northern California fell to $1.85, its lowest since July 2019.
In Canada, next-day gas at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta fell to positive 70 cents per mmBtu,its lowest since October 2022 for a fourth day in a row.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.4 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 14-week low of 95.7 bcfd on Monday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 11 before turning near normal from May 12-14.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would hold near 92.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 12.2 bcfd on Sunday to a preliminary three-week high of 12.9 bcfd on Monday on signs that at least one of three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was exiting an outage.
Week ended Apr 26 Forecast | Week ended Apr 19 Actual | Year ago Apr 26 | Five-year average Apr 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +92 | +62 | +72 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,472 | 2,425 | 2,048 | 1,842 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 34.2% | 37.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.94 | 1.92 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 8.84 | 9.17 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.33 | 10.43 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 56 | 62 | 89 | 96 | 91 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 81 | 73 | 59 | 59 | 60 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 171 | 135 | 148 | 155 | 166 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.0 | 96.3 | 96.6 | 103.1 | 95.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.1 | 103.2 | 103.3 | 111.3 | 102.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 10.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.4 |
U.S. Residential | 10.1 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 11.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.6 | 29.8 | 31.3 | 29.1 | 22.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 25.9 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.9 | 71.2 | 71.4 | 74.3 | 76.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 97.4 | 92.7 | 92.8 | 95.9 | 94.1 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 80 | 81 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 80 | 81 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 | |
Wind | 21 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
Coal | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.40 | 1.46 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.05 | 1.32 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.85 | 2.02 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.05 | 1.27 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.18 | 1.25 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.07 | 1.40 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.35 | 1.70 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.40 | 0.86 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.68 | 0.71 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 20.75 | 23.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 23.75 | 22.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 110.00 | 19.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 32.00 | 25.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | -17.00 | -0.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | -20.50 | 4.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy and Sharon Singleton
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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