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US natgas prices jump to 12-week high on contract expiry, Freeport LNG return



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

April 29 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 12-week high on Monday with the start of the higher priced June contract as the front-month andforecasts for more demand than previously expected due in part toan increase in feedgas atFreeport LNG's export plant in Texas.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.7 cents, or 5.6%, from where the June contract closed on Friday to settle at $2.030 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Monday.

That was the front-month's highest close since Feb. 5 and put itup about 26% from where the May contract closed when it was still the front-month on Friday.

That was also thecontract's biggest daily percentage increase since January 2022 when it jumped by a record 46.5% around the time the front-month switched from February to March.

In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero several times over the past month or sodue to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline outages and other workthat has trapped gas in Texas.

In California, next-day power at South Path-15 (SP-15) EL-PK-SP15-SNL in Southern California fell to a record low of negative $20 per megawatt hour (MWh) on April 26, down from positive $4 on April 25. That compares with the prior all-time low of negative $15 on April 5.

Next-day gas at the Southern California Border NG-SCL-CGT-SNL fell to positive$1.35 per mmBtu, its lowest since hitting a record low of $1.14 in June 2019, while spot gas at the PG&E hub NG-CG-PGE-SN in Northern California fell to $1.85, its lowest since July 2019.

In Canada, next-day gas at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta fell to positive 70 cents per mmBtu,its lowest since October 2022 for a fourth day in a row.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.4 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 14-week low of 95.7 bcfd on Monday.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 11 before turning near normal from May 12-14.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would hold near 92.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 12.2 bcfd on Sunday to a preliminary three-week high of 12.9 bcfd on Monday on signs that at least one of three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was exiting an outage.

Week ended Apr 26 Forecast

Week ended Apr 19 Actual

Year ago Apr 26

Five-year average

Apr 26

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+47

+92

+62

+72


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,472

2,425

2,048

1,842


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

34.2%

37.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.94

1.92

2.20

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

8.84

9.17

13.49

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

10.33

10.43

12.34

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

56

62

89

96

91

U.S. GFS CDDs

81

73

59

59

60

U.S. GFS TDDs

171

135

148

155

166

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.0

96.3

96.6

103.1

95.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.1

6.9

6.7

8.2

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

104.1

103.2

103.3

111.3

102.8

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.1

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

11.7

12.5

12.5

13.4

10.1

U.S. Commercial

7.8

5.9

5.5

7.2

8.4

U.S. Residential

10.1

6.4

5.7

9.2

11.8

U.S. Power Plant

28.6

29.8

31.3

29.1

22.7

U.S. Industrial

23.3

22.3

22.2

22.0

25.9

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.9

71.2

71.4

74.3

76.2

Total U.S. Demand

97.4

92.7

92.8

95.9

94.1







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

80

81

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

80

81

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

82

82

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 3

Week ended Apr 26

Week ended Apr 19

Week ended Apr 12

Week ended Apr 5

Wind

21

16

16

16

15

Solar

5

6

6

6

5

Hydro

6

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

2

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

37

37

37

38

Coal

12

13

13

13

13

Nuclear

20

19

19

20

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.40

1.46


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.05

1.32


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

1.85

2.02


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.05

1.27


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.18

1.25


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.07

1.40


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.35

1.70


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.40

0.86



AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.68

0.71



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

20.75

23.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

23.75

22.25

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

110.00

19.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

32.00

25.00


Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

-17.00

-0.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

-20.50

4.00



Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy and Sharon Singleton

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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