Week Ahead-Fed leads a heavy week for event risk
Jan 29 (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of the yeardominates the week's economic calendar, which also features the U.S. January jobs report and a Bank of England rate decision.
The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday and the focus will be on the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any hints on future policy moves. The market is currently pricing a chance of a cut at the next meeting in March at 48%, as the U.S. economy continues to show resilience.
U.S. jobs data is due on Friday and the Reuters poll forecast is for a 173,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, average earnings to slow to 0.3% month-on-month from 0.4% and the unemployment rate at 3.8% from 3.7%. Other significant U.S. data includes January consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, and final January University of Michigan sentiment.
The Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, but may gently open the door to rate cuts in the future. There is no tier-one UK data due.
In Europe there is a busy data schedule with euro zone flash Q4 GDP, final manufacturing PMIs, and HICP, plus German CPI and GDP.
Japan has a low-key weekwith jobs, industrial production, and retail sales.
China's main releases are the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for January and Caixin manufacturing PMI, among the last significant data before the week-long Lunar New Year break in mid-February. Factory activity is likely to continue lagging services.
Australia will release retail sales on Tuesday and December and Q4 CPI on Wednesday, which will be pivotal for RBA expectations. There is no tier 1 data in New Zealand. Canada has a quiet week with only November GDP and January manufacturing PMI due.
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Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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