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GER40Cash

XM Research

XM Research - 2 days ago

Euro suffers when ECB announces the first rate cut of the cycle

ECB prepares to cut rates for the first time ahead of the Fed History points to strong possibility of back-to-back rate cuts Both the euro and German DAX tend to underperform on meeting day The ECB is on the brink of announcing its first rate cut since March 2016 as the overall rhetoric from ECB officials leaves little doubt about next week’s rate decision, with even the most hawkish members of the Governing council acknowledging the need for rate cuts.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Low volatility across the board besides Bitcoin – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a relatively quiet mood Volatility in Bitcoin and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility despite rally to record highs Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively over the past week as markets are bracing for inflation data both from the US and Eurozone this week. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains muted even though the Japanese currency is trading near historical lows against its major peers, while the latest downbeat inflation data out
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Commodities' volatility jumps due to geopolitics – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility eases aggressively Volatility in gold and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility amidst weekly gains Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively as the market is adjusting to a quieter data calendar that nevertheless includes a plethora of Fed speakers. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate as market participants, especially in dollar/yen, appear unwilling to further provoke the BoJ and risk significant losses.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Equities rally as US data softens – Stock Markets

US stock indices reach new highs as chances of a Fed rate cut jump Extra focus on US retailers’ earnings Utility stocks record the strongest monthly rally since 2022 Could US car manufacturers benefit from the new EV tariffs? Equity markets continue their advance boosted by the softer US data. In particular, Wednesday’s weaker US inflation report is keeping the door firmly open to a Fed rate cut during the summer, supporting the current risk appetite, despite the fact that
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Higher euro/dollar volatility ahead of US CPI report – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar enjoys strong volatility ahead of key data releases Gold and silver see higher volatility amidst muted price rally Volatility drops in US equities as risk appetite returns Euro/dollar volatility has jumped higher as the market is preparing for some key US data prints. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate after the recent Japanese interventions, with market participants trying to avoid further provoking the BoJ at this stage.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Besides yen pairs, neutral volatility across the board ahead of Fed and NFP – Volatility Watch

Japan’s intervention spurs volatility in yen pairs, usual action elsewhere in FX market Commodities enjoy lower volatility as geopolitical tensions subside Equities at neutral volatility levels during earnings season, Bitcoin volatility picks up Volatility in yen crosses has exploded on the back of a suspected Japanese intervention. Moreover, apart from dollar/yen, other dollar pairs are trading in the middle of their volatility range ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Slightly lower volatility across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Lower volatility is on the cards for the FX market Gold to enjoy lower volatility; oil probably too quiet considering geopolitics Equities volatility remains elevated, especially in JP225 index Volatility in EUR/USD has eased up a bit but remains high amidst continued rhetoric for an ECB rate cut in June. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in maintaining volatility high in the remaining currencies, including the yen and pound crosses, with the former facin
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Geopolitical developments and stronger US data push volatility to new highs across the board – Volatility Watch

Volatility remains extremely high across the FX spectrum Commodities volatility reaches new highs; Bitcoin poised for smaller moves Equities volatility is off the charts led by the S&P 500 and DAX 40 indices Volatility in EUR/USD remains very high as the pair recorded a decent weekly drop following the stronger US CPI data. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in pushing volatility higher in the remaining currencies, including the yen crosses, with the market n
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XM Research - 2 months agoBullish

Technical Analysis – GER 40 index marks highs after highs

German 40 index hits all-time high Uptrend shows ongoing strength, but a pause is likely   The German 40 index has been having an exceptional performance so far in 2024, gaining more than 10% to unlock an all-time high of 18,510 on Wednesday. The ongoing positive trend has yet to show any cracks, but with the price marking its 10th consecutive green week near the upper Bollinger band and the momentum indicators pointing to overbought conditions, the bears could be around the corne
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XM Research - 3 months agoBullish

Technical Analysis – GER 40 index back at record highs

The German 40 index hits a record high within bullish formation Might be sailing within overbought waters, but there is still some bullish power   Despite the disappointing manufacturing PMI data, the German 40 index (cash) managed to spike to a record high of 17,388 on Thursday, rising above the important resistance line which has been blocking the bulls during 2023. The index has been resilient above its short-term simple moving averages (SMAs) over the past month, but with th
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XM Research - 4 months agoBullish

The German 40 index unlocks a record high The short-term bias is positive; next resistance at 17,145   The German 40 index (cash) returned to the uncharted territory following the completion of a bullish flag formation, printing a record high of 17,040 on Tuesday. The RSI and the MACD have gradually turned up in the positive region, backing the current bullish momentum in the price.
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XM Research - 4 months ago

S&P 500 at all-time highs, expected to make bigger moves ahead – Volatility report

Volatility remains low across the FX spectrum with the exception of EUR/USD Gold volatility drops but silver remains at its midpoint; oil and Bitcoin set for small moves S&P 500 volatility rises significantly; remaining stock indices in calmer waters Volatility in EUR/USD has jumped as the pair recorded a sizeable correction last week following some key data releases.
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XM Research - 4 months ago

Volatility Report – January 23, 2024

Volatility remains significantly low across the currency board Commodity markets seem quiet as well, oil exhibits more volatility than metals US indices in the middle of volatility range, JP225 and Bitcoin are rather hot The recent range-trading in most major currency pairs has caused their expected volatility to drop to relatively low levels.
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XM Research - 4 months agoBullish

Technical Analysis – GER 40 index aims for bullish continuation

German 40 index looks for a bullish channel breakout Will the index resume its long-term uptrend?   The German 40 index (cash) has been trending southwards within a channel since marking the record high of 17,000 in mid-December. The downward-sloping formation could be part of a bullish continuation flag pattern followed by the almost vertical October-December uptrend.
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XM Research - 5 months ago

Volatility Report – January 16, 2024

Volatility crashed across the FX spectrum including EUR/USD and JPY crosses Gold and Silver volatility drops; oil and Bitcoin set for sizeable moves Stock indices in turbulent waters, JP225 volatility records a new monthly high  The recent range-trading in EUR/USD has caused the expected volatility to drop to the lowest level of the past month, despite some key data releases.
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XM Research - 5 months agoNeutral

GER40 index remains a tad below its all-time high It is currently 15% higher than the October 2023 low Momentum indicators are somewhat mixed at this juncture The GER40 cash index is trading higher today and remains a tad below the December 14, 2023 high of 17,004. It has recorded an impressive 15% rally since the October 27, 2023 low, with the bulls possibly taking a breather without risking their hard-earned gains.
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XM Research - 6 months ago

Stock market outlook 2024: Soft landings, rate cuts, and elections

Stellar year for US stock markets, fueled by ‘soft landing’ hopes Can the rally persist in 2024, despite high valuations and election uncertainty?  European valuations are much cheaper, partly reflecting recession concerns   US stocks race higher, but tougher environment ahead It’s been a sensational year for US equity markets.
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XM Research - 6 months agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – GER 40 index shows signs of exhaustion

German 40 index takes a breather after dynamic rally Selling pressures expected to intensify below 15,800 The German 40 index (cash) marked a three-week bullish streak, running from seven-month lows to a two-month high of 15,954. The index has recouped more than half of the August-October downtrend, but the falling RSI, which seems to have topped in the overbought region in the four-chart, is warning that the latest downturn might be at an early stage.
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XM Research - 9 months agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – GER 40 index trims losses but is not out of the woods

The German 40 index (cash) corrected higher after completing a bullish morning star pattern near its July low of 15,455 and just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 20222-August 2023 uptrend. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) made this area important to watch as well. The rising RSI is an encouraging sign of an improving market sentiment, but the indicator has yet to confirm a bullish bias above its 50 neutral mark.
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XM Research - 10 months agoBearish

The German 40 index (cash) unlocked a new record high of 16,530 last Friday before charting a bearish doji candlestick. Monday’s downfall confirmed the negative pattern, with the price further retreating to a three-week low of 15,949 earlier today. The technical oscillators took a negative turn too, flagging more weakness ahead. If the price closes below its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 16,000, the tentative support trendline from the October lows could provide another op
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