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US500Cash


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Can stocks keep defying gravity? – Stock Markets

US stock indices sail towards successive record highs Hawkish Fed doesn’t scare bulls as volatility remains inexistent Valuations are historically stretched but earnings keep growing   High after high All major US indices are having an astonishing year, recording consecutive all-time highs as the economy seems more and more likely to achieve a soft-landing.
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Market Comment – Fed stops dollar’s CPI-related bleed, BoJ next

Dollar tumbles after weaker-than-expected CPI data Recovers somewhat after Fed signals one rate cut BoJ decision looms as investors bet on July hike US CPI data propels Wall Street to fresh records Inflation slows, Fed sees one rate cut in 2024 After a turbulent session, the US dollar finished lower against all its major counterparts on Wednesday.
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Market Comment – Traders lock gaze on US inflation and Fed decision

Dollar awaits US CPI data and Fed projections Euro still feels the heat of EU elections Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh records ahead of Fed US CPI data and Fed to rock the boat The US dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, extending its gains against the euro, the yen and the franc, but losing some ground versus the kiwi and the pound. Today, the greenback seems to be stabilizing against most of its peers as traders may have adopted a more cautious stance ahead of today’s US CPI data
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Volatility surges across the board – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs are very volatile after strong NFP report Volatility in gold and silver ticks up, oil swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump amid correction fears Volatility in dollar crosses has picked up as the stronger-than-expected NFP report dialed back rate cut expectations, while investors are bracing for the FOMC meeting and the CPI print later this week. Euro pairs are in a similar position after the EU elections sparked a wave of politically instabili
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Market Comment – Market prepares for Wednesday’s events

Euro tries to recoup part of Monday’s losses US stock indices trade sideways but volatility remains high Lighter US calendar but some interest on the 10-year bond auction Pound is on the backfoot after the weaker jobs data Euro tries to recover from Monday’s drop The euro remains on the backfoot following Sunday’s European election results.
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Market Comment – Dollar rallies on NFP, euro slips after EU vote

US nonfarm payrolls surge past expectations Dollar skyrockets as Fed rate cuts are scaled back Euro slips as Macron calls snap election in France S&P 500 pulls back after hitting new record high Strong jobs report fuels dollar’s engines The US dollar rallied against all its major counterparts on Friday and continued marching north against most of them on Monday, as Friday’s US employment report revealed that the world’s largest economy added a lot more jobs than expe
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Market Comment – Dollar trades sideways ahead of NFP

ECB cuts rates but outlook remains unclear Market is focusing on the US labour market data Weaker prints could open the door to a dovish Fed meeting Stock markets could suffer if there is an upside surprise today ECB cuts rates but the outlook remains unclear The ECB confirmed the overwhelming expectations and announced a 25bps rate cut on Thursday.
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Could stronger US data force a Fed rate cut?

Markets crave weaker US data to support their rate cut expectations Strong data this week could cause an acute market reaction The Fed might find it easier to act if financial stability is under threat The key question in the market participants’ minds is when the Fed is going to start easing its monetary policy stance. The year started with the market pricing in at least five rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, but with inflation remaining above 3% since July 2023, expectations have t
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Is the equity market headed for a summer rally? – Stock Markets

S&P 500 finishes May 4.8% higher in an overall solid year Rally could resume as rate cuts are just around the corner Valuations remain stretched but earnings beat estimates   Stocks defy seasonality and strive for summer rally The S&P 500 index clocked its best May performance since 2020 in an overall strong year for equity markets.
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Volatility ticks up in commodity and stock markets – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a quiet mood despite upcoming rate decisions Volatility in oil skyrockets, gold swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump as they ease from record highs Euro/dollar and euro/pound volatilities have been in the middle of their 30-day range, even though markets are bracing for the first interest rate cut by the ECB since 2016 on its Thursday meeting.
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Technical Analysis – Are there any bullish signals in the US 500 index?

US 500 index holds above 20- and 50-day EMAs Technical indicators are not in the bearish area yet A surge above 5,340 is needed for a positive outlook revision   The US 500 stock index (cash) rose slowly to reach an intra-day high of 5,302 on Monday, only to immediately relinquish its mild gains and trade slightly negative below April's bar of 5,281. Friday’s bounce off the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (SMAs) questioned the case of a bearish trend reversal and
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Euro suffers when ECB announces the first rate cut of the cycle

ECB prepares to cut rates for the first time ahead of the Fed History points to strong possibility of back-to-back rate cuts Both the euro and German DAX tend to underperform on meeting day The ECB is on the brink of announcing its first rate cut since March 2016 as the overall rhetoric from ECB officials leaves little doubt about next week’s rate decision, with even the most hawkish members of the Governing council acknowledging the need for rate cuts.
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US stock markets rally but volatility plunges – Stock Markets

Wall Street remains buoyant near record highs Solid Q1 earnings aid, focus shifts on inflation and Fed outlook Volatility remains historically low as bears get repeatedly burned Stock rally shows no signs of easing This year has been sensational for the US equity markets as macroeconomic data out of the US have been constantly reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.
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Market Comment – Dollar trades sideways as focus turns to US yields

US stock indices under pressure as yields climb German CPI could dictate next week’s ECB rhetoric Yen underperformance lingers; all eyes on Friday’s Tokyo CPI Dollar rallied on Tuesday, US stock indices were mixed Following a couple of negative sessions, the US dollar showed its strength yesterday as it managed to outperform the euro.
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Low volatility across the board besides Bitcoin – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a relatively quiet mood Volatility in Bitcoin and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility despite rally to record highs Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively over the past week as markets are bracing for inflation data both from the US and Eurozone this week. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains muted even though the Japanese currency is trading near historical lows against its major peers, while the latest downbeat inflation data out
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Market Comment – Dollar steadies, awaiting fresh catalyst

US dollar stabilizes after profit-taking pullback Investors agree with Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ view Wall Street rebounds as AI remains main driver Gold gains, but remains well off its record Higher for even longer The US dollar pulled back on Friday against most of its major counterparts, perhaps as the slight downward revisions to the UoM inflation expectations for May prompted traders to lock some profits on the long positions they initiated earlier in the week.
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US 500 prints new record high thanks to Nvidia’s upbeat earnings Better-than-expected US PMIs weigh on the market Technical outlook positive above 5,280   The US 500 stock index has been moving from record high to record high over the past week, surging to a new high of 5,350 on Thursday following Nvidia’s upbeat Q1 earnings report.
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Commodities' volatility jumps due to geopolitics – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility eases aggressively Volatility in gold and silver skyrockets US equities enjoy low volatility amidst weekly gains Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively as the market is adjusting to a quieter data calendar that nevertheless includes a plethora of Fed speakers. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate as market participants, especially in dollar/yen, appear unwilling to further provoke the BoJ and risk significant losses.
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Market Comment – Dollar rebounds as US import prices accelerate

US import prices see largest surge in two years Investors scale back Fed rate cut bets Yen slides on BoJ bond operation, Ueda’s remarks Wall Street pulls back after hitting fresh record highs   Dollar recovers some CPI-related losses The US dollar rebounded on Thursday and is holding onto those gains today as data showed that import prices increased 0.9% month-on-month in April, taking the annual rate up to 1.1% from 0.4%.
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Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, Gold, US 500

USDJPY gets hammered after monthly US data miss forecasts; support could develop near 153.35 Gold strengthens short-term upleg; eyes turn to the 2,400 area as bias remains positive  US 500 stock index hits all-time high; looks bullish, but room for improvement could be limited
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