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EURUSD


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Market Comment – Dollar headed for third weekly gains as stock rally cools

Dollar stands tall after SNB cut and BoE’s dovish hold Yen enters intervention zone as Japan’s underlying inflation falls Euro slips on weak PMIs, US PMIs next in focus Nasdaq tumbles as Nvidia hit by profit taking ahead of triple witching Fed cut hopes not enough to dent the dollar The US dollar looks set to finish the week higher, extending its winning streak to a third week.
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Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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Euro on firmer footing ahead of flash PMIs as French risks subside - Preview

Euro rebounds as French election fears ease June PMIs to come into the spotlight amid more cautious ECB Flash estimates are due on Friday at 08:00 GMT Calmer week for the euro after French turmoil European assets are having a better week following the market panic sparked by the rise of the far right across the continent in the European Parliament elections on June 9. But the biggest shockwave came from French President Emmanuelle Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative ele
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Market Comment – Fedspeak and US data could prop up the dollar

Back in action with a full US data calendar and Fedspeak BoE meets but unlikely to produce headlines SNB cuts rates and remains willing to intervene in FX markets Yen underperforms as Japanese officials remain quiet Dollar remains on the back foot The rare mid-week day-off in the US is over with the market mostly preparing for tomorrow’s key release of the preliminary PMI surveys, which are critical for the euro area.
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Market Comment - Wall Street sets another record after soft US retail sales

Risk appetite buoyed by signs of weakening US consumption Wall Street closes at record highs ahead of US holiday, oil also rallies Pound edges up as services CPI remains sticky despite drop in headline September rate cut hopes get a boost US retail sales fell short of expectations on Tuesday, in another sign that consumers in America have started to rein in their spending.
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Volatility skyrockets in FX and stock markets - Volatility Watch

Euro and pound pairs are very volatile but for different reasons Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin seems quiet Volatility in euro crosses has picked up as the region suffers from political instability following the EU elections and fears of a renewed debt crisis.
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Market Comment – Fedspeak and US retail sales could test dollar’s resilience

Fedspeak could prove market-moving this week Retail sales could surprise on the downside RBA members discussed again to hike rates Dollar still in charge but aussie rallies Fed speakers to move the market again? Amidst a holiday-shortened week, Fed speakers will be out in force, and it will be interesting to see if the hawks adopt an even more aggressive rhetoric.
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Soft retail sales could curb Fed hawks’ rhetoric – Preview

Market ponders the Fed’s stance after a hawkish gathering Retail sales to reveal the strength of domestic demand Dollar on the front foot; could suffer if data weaken this week The May retail sales report will be released on Tuesday 12:30 GMT At last week’s Fed meeting, consumer spending featured briefly in Chairman Powell’s press conference.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD returns higher after 6-week low

EURUSD remains below descending trend line RSI and MACD below their mid-levels EURUSD slipped beneath the long-term descending trend line, driving the price towards a fresh six-week low of 1.0667. Also, the pair dived below the simple moving averages (SMAs), indicating more declines. The RSI is moving marginally up below the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is strengthening its bearish momentum beneath its trigger and zero lines.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD battles with 61.8% Fibo

EURUSD drops to a fresh 1-month low after violating SMAs Quickly recoups some losses and challenges 61.8% Fibo Oscillators suggest that bearish forces are strengthening   EURUSD has undergone some volatile sessions in the past few days, eventually dipping beneath both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), to a fresh one-month low.
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Market Comment – Euro extends losses on French election jitters

Euro hits 6-week low as risk premium for French debt jumps But equities mixed as selloff eases Trio of central bank decisions eyed Euro rocked by fresh fears of a debt crisis Concerns about the real risk of a far-right government in France continue to dog the euro after they resurfaced towards the end of last week. Having shed more than 1% so far in June, the euro is struggling to hold on to the $1.07 level on Monday and is currently trading at more than six-week lows.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD in a dramatic downfall

EURUSD corrects sharply down to 1½-month low; gives up previous gains Technical signals remain bearish; support expected near 1.0650-1.0660   EURUSD continued to sink for the second consecutive day on Friday, reversing entirely its post-US CPI upturn and trimming a significant portion of its April-June uptrend to trade at a 1½-month low of 1.0670. The sharp selling started after the bulls failed to climb above the support-turned-resistance trendline at 1.0850 and the 200-period si
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Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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Market Comment – Dollar higher, yen under pressure but stocks feel good

Yen suffers from BoJ's inactivity Dollar recovers from Wednesday’s underperformance US stock indices’ euphoria continues BoJ meeting held no surprises The yen is under pressure again today as the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and decided to trim its bond buying programme but postponed the announcement of the new size of bond purchases until the July meeting.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD recoups losses and bearish gap after US CPI

EURUSD posts gains above 1.0800 RSI crosses above 50 level EURUSD is extending its rebound off 1.0740 after US inflation data that was lower than expected. The pair jumped above the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the 1.0800 round number. Technically, the RSI indicator is currently crossing the 50 level to the upside; however, the MACD is losing momentum beneath its trigger line and near the zero level.
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After Macron’s election gamble, is political risk a new headwind for the euro?

Snap elections in France spur panic in euro and French stock market Doubts about Germany’s coalition add to euro’s woes Is political instability about to become a persistent risk for the euro? Europe steers to the right Financial markets don’t usually pay so much attention to elections for the European Parliament, as national governments are often seen as the bigger force in setting EU policy.
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Market Comment – Traders lock gaze on US inflation and Fed decision

Dollar awaits US CPI data and Fed projections Euro still feels the heat of EU elections Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh records ahead of Fed US CPI data and Fed to rock the boat The US dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, extending its gains against the euro, the yen and the franc, but losing some ground versus the kiwi and the pound. Today, the greenback seems to be stabilizing against most of its peers as traders may have adopted a more cautious stance ahead of today’s US CPI data
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Volatility surges across the board – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs are very volatile after strong NFP report Volatility in gold and silver ticks up, oil swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump amid correction fears Volatility in dollar crosses has picked up as the stronger-than-expected NFP report dialed back rate cut expectations, while investors are bracing for the FOMC meeting and the CPI print later this week. Euro pairs are in a similar position after the EU elections sparked a wave of politically instabili
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Market Comment – Market prepares for Wednesday’s events

Euro tries to recoup part of Monday’s losses US stock indices trade sideways but volatility remains high Lighter US calendar but some interest on the 10-year bond auction Pound is on the backfoot after the weaker jobs data Euro tries to recover from Monday’s drop The euro remains on the backfoot following Sunday’s European election results.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD turns bearish in short term after dramatic slump

EURUSD falls to 1-month low after European elections MACD and RSI move south EURUSD opened with a negative gap on Monday beneath the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The strong 1.0800 barrier, as well as the short-term uptrend line, were penetrated to the downside. Currently, the pair is battling with the medium-term descending trend line near a new one-month low of 1.0730. According to technical oscillators, the RSI fell below the 50 level, indicating more down
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