Technical Analysis – EURGBP still range-bound; directional signals conflict


Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

EURGBP is currently capped by the merged 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart still bound within a directionless market that commenced on April 6. Further backing this view is the mostly flat joined 50- and 100-period SMAs.

Turning to the short-term oscillators, they paint an unclear picture. The stochastics are rising towards the overbought section, promoting some advances. However, the MACD is marginally below its red trigger line and the zero mark, while the RSI, is pushing up against its neutral threshold. Noteworthy, is the falling 200-period SMA, which is endorsing negative sentiment for now.

If the moving averages at 0.8733 deny advances, support could originate from the lower boundary of the range at 0.8682, where the lower Bollinger band also is located. Piercing below the consolidation area, the price could challenge the 0.8620 and 0.8593 troughs from early March. A step lower could meet the 0.8569 barrier, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 0.8281 to the 11-year high of 0.9497, ahead of the 0.8520 swing low from February 28.

To the upside, abrupt resistance may arise from the 50- and 100-period SMAs at 0.8733 and the immediate mid-Bollinger band at the 61.8% Fibo of 0.8745. A push up could encounter the upper Bollinger band and the 200-period SMA around 0.8828 prior to the upper bound of the sideways market at 0.8864. A run over this border could hit the 50.0% Fibo of 0.8889 before shooting for the 0.8990 resistance and nearby 38.2% Fibo of 0.9033.

Overall, the very short-term timeframe maintains a neutral-to-bearish bias and either a break above 0.8864 or below 0.8682 may strengthen the forthcoming direction.