Technical Analysis – GBPUSD bulls prepare to challenge the 1.3011 peak

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

GBPUSD while directionless is attempting a new push towards the five-month high of 1.3011, which is aided by the recent bullish crossover of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) by the 50-day one and the rising slopes of the 50- and 100-day SMAs.

The technical indicators suggest that positive momentum is improving. The RSI is rising in bullish territory, while the MACD – although still in the positive zone – is below its red trigger line but looks to move back above it. Noteworthy though, is the flat 20-day SMA and the Ichimoku lines, which warn of a pullback or a persisting sideways move.

If buyers persist, initial resistance could come from the peak of 1.3011 and neighboring 1.3045 level, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3381 to 1.1957. A successful break above this, may see the 1.3176 high from May 3 bare its claws ahead of the highs from March at 1.3268 and 1.3310.

If sellers retake control, the 1.2879 area and the 61.8% Fibo of 1.2837 underneath, may be first to halt the decline. Next, the low of 1.2768 and nearby 50-day SMA at 1.2745 – residing at the upper band of the cloud – could interrupt the drop. Slightly lower, the 200-day SMA at 1.2689 and 50.0% Fibo of 1.2668 may be next to challenge the bears ahead of the 1.2581 inside swing from September 20.

Overall, the short-term bias is neutral-to-positive and a break above 1.3011 would reinforce the bullish outlook.