Technical Analysis – NZDJPY cautiously positive in short-term; golden cross registered


Christina Parthenidou, XM Investment Research Desk

NZDJPY restored positive momentum after diving as low as 71.22 last week and is now approaching the 73.51 top registered in late-December.

The upward-sloping RSI is endorsing the positive move, but some caution could be justified as the Stochastics have already posted a bearish cross above the 20 oversold level, while the MACD, although somewhat improving, has yet to reach its red signal line.

Therefore, questions are rising whether the price can overcome its previous peak of 73.51. If it successfully closes above it, strengthening the upward pattern off the 6-year low of 66.29, the door would open for the 0.7400 round-level. Crawling higher, the bulls may rest near the 75.00 barrier before testing the March peak of 76.78.  At this point, it is also worth noting that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has posted a golden cross with the longer-term 200-day SMA after 8 months, signaling a trend improvement.

If the price fails to reach the 73.51 peak and instead drifts lower, attention would initially shift to the 72.35 region where the price stopped several times since late November. Beneath that, a closing price below 71.22 and the 50-day SMA could trigger fresh selling especially if the 200-day SMA is breached too, with traders eyeing next the 69.90 former resistance area.

In brief, NZDJPY is viewed as cautiously bullish in the short-term, with buyers eagerly waiting to see whether the pair can overcome the almost 8-month high of 73.51.