Technical Analysis – Silver turns bearish with bears pushing for further declines

Anthony Charalambous, XM Investment Research Desk

Silver looks to be shifting to a bearish bias as it moves below the swing low of 16.85 from August 19. The commodity’s bearish state seems to be backed by the downward slopes in the Ichimoku lines and the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the 40-day SMA nearing a bearish cross of the 100-day one.

Furthermore, the technical indicators reflect strong negative momentum in place, with the RSI currently in oversold territories, while the MACD is accelerating below its red trigger line in the negative region.

If selling persists, the price could come to rest at the 16.53 level from August 13 before encountering the 16.33 support, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 14.28 to 19.63. Falling further, the low of August 2 could apply some upside pressure ahead of the trough of 15.91, from August 1.

If buyers deny more losses and push the pair higher, initial resistance could come from the 17.15 level, where the Tenkan-sen line is located. Moving higher, the 17.36 resistance coupled with the 20-day SMA, could interrupt the test of the 17.70 area where the 40- and 100-day SMAs reside. Another push higher could encounter the swing high of 18.21 and the nearby 23.6% Fibo of 18.36.

Summarizing, the short-term bias is cautiously bearish. A break below 16.53 would reinforce belief in the decline, while a close above 17.36 could return a neutral bias.