Special Reports

Can gold climb to a new record high? – Special Report

Posted on May 14, 2024 at 2:52 pm GMT

Gold pulls back after hitting record high near $2430 Retreat remains short-lived as geopolitical risks escalate But demand from China seems to be slowing Yet, the chances for fresh advances remain elevated Geopolitics among the main drivers After hitting a record high at around $2,430 on April 12, gold entered a corrective phase due to the easing of geopolitical tensions at the time allowing investors to continue offloading safe-haven positions. However, the retreat remained short-lived, with the precious metal [..]

Higher euro/dollar volatility ahead of US CPI report – Volatility Watch

Posted on May 14, 2024 at 2:25 pm GMT

Euro/dollar enjoys strong volatility ahead of key data releases Gold and silver see higher volatility amidst muted price rally Volatility drops in US equities as risk appetite returns Euro/dollar volatility has jumped higher as the market is preparing for some key US data prints. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate after the recent Japanese interventions, with market participants trying to avoid further provoking the BoJ at this stage. Volatility in the commodities space remains mixed. Oil price [..]

Could Monday’s intervention turn the tide for the yen? – Special Report

Posted on April 30, 2024 at 2:38 pm GMT

Japan allegedly intervened for the first time in six months Most recent interventions did not produce concrete results A more hawkish BoJ is probably needed for a sustained yen rally Japan has a long history of market interventions, to weaken or prop up its currency. Several times since the 1990s, Japan, unilaterally or with help from its main trading partners, tried to turn the tide for the yen. A quick look at the most recent market interventions, including yen’s post-intervention [..]

Besides yen pairs, neutral volatility across the board ahead of Fed and NFP – Volatility Watch

Posted on April 30, 2024 at 9:55 am GMT

Japan’s intervention spurs volatility in yen pairs, usual action elsewhere in FX market Commodities enjoy lower volatility as geopolitical tensions subside Equities at neutral volatility levels during earnings season, Bitcoin volatility picks up Volatility in yen crosses has exploded on the back of a suspected Japanese intervention. Moreover, apart from dollar/yen, other dollar pairs are trading in the middle of their volatility range ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and NFP report on Friday. Volatility in the commodity space has also dropped, particularly [..]

Slightly lower volatility across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Posted on April 23, 2024 at 9:54 am GMT

Lower volatility is on the cards for the FX market Gold to enjoy lower volatility; oil probably too quiet considering geopolitics Equities volatility remains elevated, especially in JP225 index Volatility in EUR/USD has eased up a bit but remains high amidst continued rhetoric for an ECB rate cut in June. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in maintaining volatility high in the remaining currencies, including the yen and pound crosses, with the former facing a real risk of market intervention and the latter being affected by a [..]

What do the smaller US surveys say about the US economy? – Special Report

Posted on April 23, 2024 at 8:18 am GMT

Fed is still on the sidelines as the US economy remains strong Smaller US business surveys point to a weaker manufacturing sector But the services sector could continue to surprise on the upside US dollar is benefitting for the curtailed Fed rate cut expectations Stickier inflation, a relatively healthy labour market and a barrage of stronger US economic data have forced the market to reconsider its aggressive Fed expectations and to price in only two rate cuts for 2024. Despite [..]

Market continues to price in a plethora of rate cuts for 2024 – Special Report

Posted on April 17, 2024 at 1:03 pm GMT

Market is still in monetary easing mode despite fewer rate cuts priced in across the board Divergent cut expectations for the Fed and the ECB, reflecting economic conditions The ECB and the BoC are seen cutting in July; the RBA might not cut rates this year BoJ is seen hiking again during 2024 The market is digesting both the latest geopolitical developments and the recent rally in oil prices as the countdown to the May 1 Fed meeting has begun. [..]

What’s next for markets amid Israel-Iran tensions? – Special Report

Posted on April 16, 2024 at 8:22 am GMT

Iran launches strikes against Israel, but markets don’t panic Traders seem hopeful this won’t escalate into full-blown war How Israel responds will be crucial for risky assets and oil prices Political theater? Tensions in the Middle East reached boiling point over the weekend after Iran launched drone and missile strikes against Israel, in retaliation to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic consulate in Syria earlier this month. With the help of US forces, Israeli defense systems managed to [..]

Geopolitical developments and stronger US data push volatility to new highs across the board – Volatility Watch

Posted on April 16, 2024 at 8:02 am GMT

Volatility remains extremely high across the FX spectrum Commodities volatility reaches new highs; Bitcoin poised for smaller moves Equities volatility is off the charts led by the S&P 500 and DAX 40 indices Volatility in EUR/USD remains very high as the pair recorded a decent weekly drop following the stronger US CPI data. Geopolitical events have also played a crucial role in pushing volatility higher in the remaining currencies, including the yen crosses, with the market now looking for bigger [..]

What’s behind the US economy’s resilience? – Special Report

Posted on April 11, 2024 at 8:23 am GMT

US economy is still sizzling, outperforming other regions Several factors behind this strength, such as heavy public spending For US dollar to enjoy a massive rally, it may also need risk aversion Why is the US economy still so strong? One of the most striking developments over the past year has been the extraordinary resilience of the US economy, despite the highest interest rates in a generation. The United States grew 2.5% last year, much faster than any other [..]

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