US natgas prices ease 1% on signs of rising output, lower demand forecasts
By Scott DiSavino
May 22 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Wednesday on signs producers started increasing output, forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected and worries about the large amount of surplus gas still in storage.
Analysts estimated there was about 29% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Capping the price decline was an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants this month, with flows to Freeport LNG's plant in Texas up to an 11-month high.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.653 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:00 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT).
Despite the small price decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory for a 14th day in a row for the first time since June 2016.
In the spot market, next-day power at the Palo Verde hub EL-PK-PLVD-SNL in Arizona and South Path-15 (SP-15) EL-PK-SP15-SNL in Southern California turned negative for the first time in two weeks.
U.S. next-day power and gas prices have already turned negative several times in 2024, especially in Texas, Arizona and California. Prices at Palo Verde have averaged below zero 15 times so far this year versus just once in the past in 2019. SP-15 prices, which never averaged below zero before this year, have already hit that mark 12 times.
Negative prices signal there is too much power or gas being produced in a region. Energy firms can either reduce output, pay someone to take their power or gas, or, if they can get a permit, flare the unwanted gas.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was up about 0.7 bcfd since hitting a 15-week low of 96.2 bcfd on May 1. Energy traders said that increase was a sign the 63% gain in futures prices over the past three weeks has prompted some drillers to start producing more gas.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would be warmer than normal from May 22-27 and then again from June 2-6 with a near normal stretch in the middle from May 28-June 1.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would ease from 92.6 bcfd this week to 91.8 next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG forecast on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.7 bcfd so far in May with the return of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. With no new plants expected to enter service until later in 2024, average LNG feedgas was 13.1 bcfd so far this year, the same as in 2023.
On a daily basis, flows to Freeport were on track to reach an 11-month high of 2.2 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 2.1 bcfd on Tuesday, while flows to U.S. energy company Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Elba Island in Georgia were on track to slide to a four-month low of 0.3 bcfd on Wednesday from a four-month high of 0.4 bcfd on Tuesday.
Week ended May 17 Forecast | Week ended May 10 Actual | Year ago May 17 | Five-year average May 17 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +89 | +70 | +97 | +92 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,722 | 2,633 | 2,309 | 2,105 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 29.3% | 30.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.66 | 2.67 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.76 | 10.47 | 9.97 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.83 | 11.51 | 10.45 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 20 | 20 | 27 | 39 | 38 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 133 | 130 | 91 | 107 | 110 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 153 | 150 | 118 | 146 | 148 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.4 | 102.6 | 94.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.6 | 104.9 | 104.3 | 110.0 | 101.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.8 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 8.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
U.S. Residential | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.3 | 33.5 | 33.3 | 32.1 | 28.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.1 | 70.8 | 70.5 | 69.6 | 69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 92.3 | 92.6 | 91.8 | 91.1 | 86.2 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 81 | 79 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 81 | 80 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 81 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 24 | Week ended May 17 | Week ended May 10 | Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | |
Wind | 13 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 40 | 41 | 40 | 37 |
Coal | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.52 | 2.52 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.97 | 1.85 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.00 | 2.45 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.75 | 1.70 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.94 | 2.05 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.05 | 2.02 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.50 | 1.74 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.19 | 0.15 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.94 | 0.93 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 38.25 | 31.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 69.50 | 50.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.75 | 32.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 13.50 | 15.81 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | -2.25 | 3.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | -4.50 | 0.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Philippa Fletcher
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔