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EURUSD


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Week Ahead – ECB decision and US payrolls to steal the show

Nonfarm payrolls and Powell’s testimony will be crucial for US dollar European Central Bank could set the stage for summer rate cuts Bank of Canada decision and UK budget announcement also in focus   Dollar braces for US payrolls  Riding high on a wave of US economic resilience, the dollar is currently the best-performing major currency this year, having gained nearly 3% against a basket of currencies in a couple of months.  This stellar performance reflects an impressi
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Market Comment – Stocks storm to fresh records on easing inflation

Wall Street surges to all-time highs after in-line PCE inflation Dollar slips before bouncing back, yen gets knocked back by dovish Ueda Euro supported by upside surprises in CPI and manufacturing PMIs Equities cheer inflation data Shares on Wall Street ended the month at all-time highs on Thursday and are set to maintain the buoyant mood in March as a summer rate cut in the US looks more certain following a decline in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and some encouraging
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Market Comment – Yen gains on BoJ remarks, dollar awaits key inflation data

BoJ’s Takata signals that policy adjustment is approaching Dollar braces for PCE inflation data Wall Street pulls back, Bitcoin surges above $60,000 BoJ’s Takata adds fuel to yen’s engines The US dollar traded higher on Wednesday, but it seems to be cooling down today, as it is trading virtually unchanged or lower against most of its major peers, with the main gainer being the Japanese yen.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD remains stuck between SMAs

EURUSD trades in a range defined by 50- and 200-day SMAs Momentum indicators are marginally tilted to the upside   EURUSD has posted a mild recovery following its pullback from the December high of 1.1138 to the 2024 bottom of 1.0693. However, the pair’s rebound has stalled at the congested region that includes the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and Ichimoku cloud, with the price consolidating between the 50- and 200-day SMAs.
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Performance in past “Fed pause” intervals supports the current S&P 500 rally

A performance comparison of key assets in the previous Fed pause periods The S&P 500 index could go higher if history repeats itself The US 10-year yield is expected to drop when the Fed decides to signal rate cuts A special report was published last year analysing the performance of key market assets during the three occasions since 2000 – in 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2018-19 respectively – when the Fed paused after a rate hiking cycle.
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Market Comment – Kiwi plunges on RBNZ’s dovish turn, Wall Street consolidates

Aussie and kiwi take a dive as Australian CPI, RBNZ ease rate hike fears China’s property troubles also weigh Wall Street and dollar await PCE data for direction RBNZ disappoints hawkish bets The Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not live up to the hawkish expectations that had been building up in the run up to today’s interest rate decision.
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Market Comment – Dollar stays on the backfoot ahead of key data, yen enjoys CPI lift

Traders await some key data releases, RBNZ decision amid quiet start to the week Yen broadly firmer after CPI beat, adds to dollar weakness as euro extends gains Equity rally loses some steam but Bitcoin surges Markets calm ahead of data flurry as dollar struggles The US dollar was headed for its seventh straight session of losses against a basket of currencies on Tuesday even as investors continued to scale back their rate cut expectations for the Fed.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD in bullish bias after climbing above 200-day SMA

EURUSD seems positive after bounce off medium-term uptrend line RSI and MACD confirm upside pressure EURUSD is extending its bullish movement above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) after the strong rebound off the 1.0695 support level, which overlaps with the medium-term ascending trend line. The RSI indicator is pointing upwards above the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is holding above its trigger line but still beneath the zero level.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD

US Core PCE price index expected to fall as USDJPY weakens Decline in flash Eurozone CPI may lead to rate cuts; EURUSD remains above 1.0800 RBNZ expected to keep rates unchanged; NZDUSD falls after bullish rally US Core PCE price index --> USDJPY The Federal Reserve is not rushing to ease policy, and markets are beginning to accept the possibility that there will be no rate cuts before the summer.
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German economic troubles could keep the euro heavy

Eurozone economy narrowly avoided a recession last year Yet situation could get worse as Germany tightens spending Can the euro ignore deteriorating economic fundamentals?      No recession, but no growth either The euro area miraculously dodged a recession last year, even despite inflation eating into people’s real incomes and high interest rates dampening demand.
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Week Ahead – US and Eurozone inflation, RBNZ meeting to test rate cut bets

US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs to keep inflation worries in the foreground Japanese and Australian inflation numbers also coming up RBNZ might strike a hawkish tone Manufacturing PMIs also in the spotlight PCE inflation to headline busy US data week The Fed is in no rush to ease policy and markets are finally starting to come round to the prospect of no rate cuts before the summer.
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Market Comment – Nvidia supercharges tech rally, euro loses momentum

Stock markets hit new record highs after stellar Nvidia earnings Euro surrenders early gains as German economic gloom intensifies Dollar recovers with help from solid data, risk-linked currencies shine Tech propels stocks to new highs Equity markets rode to new record highs on Thursday, after a stellar earnings report from Nvidia lit a fire under tech shares.
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Market Comment – Fed minutes confirm caution about lowering rates

Fed minutes reveal concerns about lowering rates too soon Rate cut bets are pushed back but dollar remains unimpressed Kiwi continues to gain on increasing RBNZ hike speculation Wall Street closes mixed, Nvidia beats earnings estimates Dollar slides further despite hawkish Fed minutes The dollar traded lower against all but one of its major counterparts yesterday, with the New Zealand dollar being once again the main gainer and the Japanese yen the exception.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD jumps to test critical resistance

EURUSD has its best week of the year Downside risks remain around 1.0880 EZ flash business PMIs show a mixed picture   EURUSD is in the seventh day of gains, marking its longest bull run in a while to reach the critical 1.0880 bar. Disappointingly, Eurozone's flash business PMI figures for February could not lift the pair above that threshold earlier today as the manufacturing sector continued to shrink, but the technical indicators are still in the bullish area.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD tests 1.0800 above falling trend line

EURUSD shows some signs for bullish actions But 200-day SMA acts as strong resistance EURUSD is attempting to surpass the immediate resistance of 1.0805 and the flat 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently standing at 1.0820. The pair jumped above the short-term uptrend line in the preceding session, indicating a potential upside recovery.
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Market Comment – Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings in the spotlight

Dollar gets knocked down ahead of FOMC meeting minutes Gold recovers more ground, China-related assets gain after rate cut Nvidia earnings later today will set the tone in stock markets Fed minutes to drive the dollar The US dollar hit an air pocket this week, losing altitude without any clear news catalyst behind the decline. Incoming data continues to point to a US economy that is running hot, with economic growth on track to hit 3% this quarter, a historically tight labor marke
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Dollar turns to Fed minutes for more fuel – Preview

Minutes of latest Fed meeting will be released at 19:00 GMT Wednesday Given strength of US economy, Fed has warned against early rate cuts If the minutes echo this view, dollar could extend its winning streak   Traders recalibrate Fed rate path The US economy continues to fire on all cylinders. Economic growth is on track to hit 3% this quarter, the labor market is historically tight, and inflation readings have been persistently hot in recent months.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

Will USDJPY find its next bullish catalyst this week to resume its uptrend? EURUSD stays victim to the dollar; needs significant gains to violate downtrend GBPUSD supported, but not bullish yet; focus on 1.2700 region   FOMC meeting minutes, S&P Global business PMIs --> USDJPY In response to upbeat US data, investors have almost convinced themselves that the Fed will not deliver its first rate cut in spring while they are also undecided whether June’s policy meeting wi
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Market Comment – Dollar unable to capitalize on hot inflation prints

US producer prices come in hot, but dollar cannot sustain gains Stock markets take a step back, Nvidia earnings to set the tone Gold recovers recent losses with some help from geopolitics Dollar not impressed The US economy continues to run hot. Incoming data point to solid economic growth, the labor market remains tight, and inflation is not cooling down as quickly as investors had hoped.
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Week Ahead – Fed minutes headline a data-heavy week

Dollar shines after inflation surprise, awaits latest Fed minutes  In Europe, business surveys will be crucial for euro and sterling Canadian and Australian data releases also on the agenda     Fired up dollar turns to FOMC minutes It was a beneficial week for the US dollar, which charged higher after data revealed US inflation is not cooling down as quickly as investors had hoped.
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