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Turkish lira falls apart, what can turn the tide?

The Turkish lira has gone into freefall, losing more than 20% of its value in the last month alone. Plagued by artificially low interest rates, extremely high inflation, and a shortage of FX reserves, there isn’t much on the horizon that can change the lira’s fortunes. A short-term recovery is possible after such a dramatic fall, but the broader trend remains overwhelmingly negative.  Lira breaks down It has been a devastating month for the Turkish currency.

Daily Market Comment – Markets calm before the central bank storm

Massive week begins, featuring rate decisions in US, Europe, and Japan US inflation report also on tap tomorrow, could influence Fed decision Yen hits seven-year low against pound, Turkish lira goes into freefall Calm ahead of key events A bombshell week lies ahead for global markets. Interest rate decisions in the United States, Eurozone, and Japan will almost certainly fuel volatility in every asset class, especially if the rhetoric of these central banks deviates from the preva

Daily Market Comment – Biden and McCarthy agree to raise US debt ceiling

Biden and McCarthy find common ground, deal ready for Congress vote Dollar takes a breather, but summer hike bets increase Turkish lira slips to new record low as Erdogan secures victory Wall Street gains, mainly driven by chip stocks Biden and McCarthy agree to suspend debt ceiling until 2025 The dollar traded lower against most of the other major currencies on Friday, and continued its retreat today, even as US President Biden and Congressional Republican McCarthy reached common g

Daily Market Comment – Dollar back in action as Fed considers another rate hike

Dollar comes back to life after Michigan data and hawkish Fed remarks Rising yields inflict damage on Japanese yen, but gold finds dip buyers Demand concerns haunt oil prices, Turkish lira sinks after elections Dollar reawakens  After getting battered and bruised for several months now, the US dollar might be on the cusp of a comeback.

Week Ahead – Focus on US retail sales as debt ceiling drama rumbles on

With no central bank decisions on the menu next week, investors will turn to data releases. Top of the list is the US retail sales report, which will help shape expectations about the Fed’s rate path, driving the dollar accordingly. There is also an onslaught of economic data from most major economies to keep traders busy, alongside an election in Turkey and the ongoing drama around the US debt ceiling.  Can the dollar shake off the blues?  It’s been a rough year for the dollar so far.

US Open Note – Stocks return to green zone as covid fears wane

Risk-on appetite returns but covid headache to be continued Omicron fears took a back seat on Tuesday, letting global stock indices, risk-sensitive currencies, and energy prices recoup some lost ground. Of course, the pandemic will remain the key driver for market sentiment for longer, at least into the new year, navigating inflation pressures, and therefore, monetary tightening plans accordingly.

Daily Market Comment – Nerves calm down but risks still loom

Mood improves, helped by signs that Biden’s fiscal agenda isn’t dead Dollar pulls back, sterling recovers in a relatively quiet FX market Stocks and oil prices bounce back, Turkish lira stages epic comeback Risk sentiment stabilizes  Global markets started the week on a soft note amid worries that the lightning-fast spread of Omicron would curtail economic growth at a time when central bank liquidity is evaporating and government spending is being rolled back.

US Open Note – Stocks go downhill as omicron bears bite; dollar, euro resilient

Omicron plays with investors’ nerves as stimulus vanishes Stock markets were in a sea of red during mid-European trading hours as omicron concerns and tighter curbs in Europe reminded investors that the pandemic is far from over and Covid could still swamp global demand after two years of limbo. The pan-European STOXX 600 and the British FTSE 100 index followed their Asian counterparts deeply lower, with energy shares, basic materials, and consumer cyclicals driving the bulk of losses, plung

US Open - Fed struck a more hawkish tone; BoE raises interest rates

Fed catches up with inflation; BoE raises interest rates On Wednesday, the Fed struck a more hawkish tone, doubling its tapering pace and signaling three rate hikes for 2022. However, the US dollar quickly erased early gains closing the day in red and only managing to outperform the Japanese yen. On Thursday, the 10-year US treasury yield ticked higher, while the US dollar fell against a basket of currencies, mirroring traders' shift to riskier assets.

Technical Analysis – USDTRY heads to record highs; broad bullish dynamics fizzle out

USDTRY has been rising exponentially for almost a month amid the inflation storm in Turkey, with the pair recently topping its rally at a new record high of 14.60. Currently, there is little evidence to argue that the bullish trend in the four-hour chart could collapse in the near term. The price is gaining fresh momentum after setting another strong foothold around the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), helping the RSI to bounce on its 50 neutral mark and the Stochastics reverse near its 2

Technical Analysis – USDTRY trades like a rocket amid unstoppable rally

USDTRY has gone through the roof lately, breaking record high after record high. The pair has gone parabolic this week, with the price currently trading much higher than its upper Bollinger band and still rising. Momentum oscillators are completely overwhelmed. The RSI is already above 90, miles beyond the ‘overbought’ region of 70. The MACD has skyrocketed as well.

Technical Analysis – USDTRY resumes multi-decade uptrend, hits new record high

USDTRY has been grinding higher in recent months and this week, it hit a new record high at 8.76. There was a major correction between November-February but since then, the pair has resumed its long-term uptrend. The momentum oscillators reflect the latest spike higher, with the RSI testing its 70 level and the MACD having just crossed above its red trigger line.

Daily Market Comment – Crude oil powers higher, dollar quiet after ISM data

· Oil prices climb after OPEC signals nothing new · Dollar quiet, equities surrender gains but remain elevated · Loonie rides the oil wave, Turkish lira falls to new record lows OPEC kicks the can down the road Crude oil prices stormed higher yesterday to touch levels not seen since late 2018 after the world's most powerful oil cartel did not signal any further increases to its production levels beyond July, as some feared.

Technical Analysis – USDTRY faces strong losses after 4-month high

USDTRY shifted aggressively to the downside after spiking towards a fresh four-month high of 8.4647 earlier today. The price is trying to recoup the positive gap which was posted during the previous sessions, with the technical indicators showing a mixed behavior. The RSI is sloping down from the overbought territory, whereas the MACD is gaining ground above its trigger line.

US Open Note – Turkish lira’s shock waves under control; stocks mildly up

European banks follow Turkish lira lower, but losses under control While the inflation fear factor holds intact in key developed economies even though price indices remain anemic, high inflation has been a truly tragic story in Turkey for a while, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates by two percentage points and more than expected on Friday.

USDTRY has fully scrapped August’s rally, meeting the crucial psychological number of 7.000 on Friday after four months on hopes of bringing an end to the ongoing sell-off. Trend signals have worsened following the bearish cross between the 20- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), while the narrowing distance between the 50- and 200-day SMAs could further enhance the odds of trend deterioration if the lines bearishly intersect each other in the next sessions.

USDTRY has been at a near standstill over the past few sessions, but it seems that it has found a pivot point around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). With the stochastics exiting the oversold area, and the RSI having bounced slightly above its 30 oversold level too, bullish pressures may keep pushing towards the 7.500 barrier, where any break higher may see the test of the 7.679 resistance.

Technical Analysis – USDTRY posts some gains after sharp sell-off

USDTRY has rebounded off the 7.6062 support level, which holds inside the Ichimoku cloud, after the aggressive sell-off from the record high of 8.5764. The RSI is confirming the slight upside retracement, however; the MACD is still extending its bearish movement below its trigger and zero lines. Also, the pair remains underneath the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and any advances above these lines could open the way for more gains.

Technical Analysis – USDTRY holds near record high; indicators are overbought

USDTRY surged to a fresh record high on Monday once again, hitting the 7.8605 barrier. The price has been in an ascending movement since December 2018; however, the technical indicators are suggesting an overbought market. The RSI is touching the 70 level, while the MACD is extending its structure above its trigger line. Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg from 7.6619 to 6.6667 at

Technical Analysis – USDTRY at new record highs; remains strongly positive

USDTRY surged to a fresh record high today, hitting the 7.4390 barrier after surpassing the strong 7.4067 barrier. The price has been in an ascending movement since December 2018; however, the technical indicators are suggesting an overbought market. The RSI is touching the 70 level, while the MACD is losing momentum below its trigger line. Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the down leg fro


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