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FX move sideways as Polish rate pause expected to continue



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX move sideways as Polish rate pause expected to continue</title></head><body>

By Boldizsar Gyori

BUDAPEST, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The zloty edged down on Wednesday ahead of a widely-expected pause on Polish interest rate cuts for a second straight month, while broader central European currencies moved largely sideways.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its main interest rate on hold at 5.75%, as it shifts to a more cautious approach ahead of an upcoming change of government.

The NBP cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in September and October, but kept rates on hold in November citing uncertainty about future regulatory and fiscal policy after an election that saw an alliance of pro-European Union parties win.

"After the parliamentary elections, the Monetary Policy Council changed its rhetoric towards a more hawkish one and is now communicating its desire to stabilise rates," Bank Millennium wrote in a note.

"The Council is probably waiting for the new government's decisions regarding protective measures in the area of electricity and food prices, as well as the prospects for fiscal policy, to crystallise."

The Polish zloty EURPLN= led losses in the region, weakening around 0.1% to 4.329 per euro, and was off a 3-1/2 year high of 4.317 hit this week.

In Hungary, whose central bank has been cutting interest rates since May, markets will watch the release of minutes from the last policy meeting at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT). The bank had cut its base rate to 11.5% last month.

The forint EURHUF= inched higher against the euro by 0.1% at 0934 GMT, hovering on the weak side of the psychological barrier of 380.

The forint has gradually faded since hitting 2023 highs beyond 370 in the middle of the year, but is still 5% stronger this year.

A Reuters poll, though, expects the currency to fall to 385 in the next 12 months, with lower interest rates and problems accessing European Union funds likely to weigh.

"It is the end of the year in the market, I see no data in the horizon that could affect the forint significantly, not even news about the frozen EU funds," a Budapest-based trader said.

"Investors expect some loss of the funds allocated for Hungary, but believe that next year an agreement will be reached."

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= traded at 24.328 to the euro, up 0.1%, unfazed by data showing retail sales fell for an 18th month, although at the slowest pace in that cycle.

The currency has largely hung in a range around 24.300 in recent weeks with markets uncertain the Czech National Bank will join peers in Hungary and Poland in easing policy this year.

The Czech central bank will remain hawkish whether it starts lowering interest rates this month or not, Governor Ales Michl told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday.




CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1034 CET







CURRENCIES







Latest bid

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2023








EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.3280

24.3450

+0.07%

-0.70%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

380.3000

380.0000

-0.08%

+5.03%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3290

4.3235

-0.13%

+8.33%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1200

117.1650

+0.04%

+0.15%


Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET
















Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2023








.PX

Prague

.PX

1403.90

1399.2700

+0.33%

+16.82%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

58289.28

58432.29

-0.24%

+33.10%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2304.44

2298.78

+0.25%

+28.60%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

14881.00

14833.18

+0.32%

+27.59%













Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread









Czech Republic






CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.9400

-0.2020

+233bps

-20bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.1570

-0.0130

+197bps

-2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1700

0.0030

+192bps

-1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2490

-0.0230

+264bps

-2bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1680

0.0060

+298bps

+0bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3990

-0.0350

+315bps

-5bps



FORWARD








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

6.33

5.29

4.30

7.05


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

9.20

7.54

6.74

10.64


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.67

5.17

4.76

5.84


Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices







**************************************************************





Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Varun H K

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
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Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
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