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2024: A year of transition - Barclays

<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>LIVE MARKETS-2024: A year of transition - Barclays</title></head><body>

STOXX 600 up 0.8%

Novo Nordisk rallies after Wegovy data

Wall St futures lower

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The euro area economy has barely grown in 2023 and indicators suggest that weakness is not likely to fade in the short-term, with a recovery gaining steam only in 2025.

Barclays' economists revised down their growth forecasts and now expect a mild technical recession in the euro area in Q3 and Q4 this year as the effects of the restrictive monetary policy weigh on growth.

The euro zone will not pull out of the quicksand even in 2024, which Barclays says is a "transitional" year. The bank's analysts now predict 0.3% GDP growth (down from a previous 0.4%), with Spain being the most resilient and fast growing and Germany, the weakest.

"Even without a deep recession, slack in labour markets is building and we expect the unemployment rate to increase to 7%, which should be sufficient for headline and core inflation to converge to the 2% European Central Bank's inflation target in the second half of 2025," Barclays added.

It also expects the ECB to remain on hold until next June and to cut the deposit rate from 4% to 2.25% between July 2024 and June 2025.

Third quarter GDP and employment data, as well as September industrial production data and a final reading of October inflation are all expected this week, and could confirm this sluggish picture.

(Matteo Allievi)



There have been some eye-catching punishments to earnings misses this season. But beyond the "wild anecdotes", UBS finds Q3 wasn't that bad and most companies beat profit expectations.

The Swiss bank says sales have been "modestly disappointing", but there remain more companies beating earnings estimates. It calculates that a net 15% have beaten EPS forecasts, while a net 9% has missed on sales.

The problem, however, are the outlook statements.

Per UBS, 250 companies have lifted their 2024 outlook, against 335 that have lowered theirs, with the average downgrade reaching 8.7%, more than twice 3.8% for the average upgrade.

Transportation, semis and materials are seeing the larger cuts, while upgrades are coming mostly from energy, banks, media and real estate.

More reading on the season here: Investors deliver harshest punishment for earnings warnings in 16 years

(Danilo Masoni)



With a larger slice of debt maturing over the coming 12 months or so and bigger floating-rate exposure, European equities face bigger refinancing risks compared to their Wall Street peers.

And investors in the old continent need to be well aware of which stocks are most or least at risk to properly balance their portfolios just as rates stay high and the economy slows down.

Citi strategists led by Chris Montagu have done the research to come up with a "Low Refi" and a "High Refi" risk screens. The first one can be drawn on to mitigate growing refinancing risks; and the second to set up a long/short strategy.

Europe's most valuable company Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO ranks in the first list of 22 stocks, along with other heavyweights ASML ASML.AS, L'Oreal OREP.PA, Hermes HRMS.PA, Inditex ITX.MC, Atlas ATCOa.ST and Porsche P911_p.DE.

The second list has Bayer BAYGn.DE as its top weight, followed by Danone DANO.PA, Adidas ADSGn.DE, Orange ORAN.PA, RWE RWEG.DE and Cellnex CLNX.MC.

Per Citi, STOXX 600 companies have 10% of fixed-rate debt maturing by end 2024, against only 5% for the S&P 500. Their floating rate debt stands at around 15%, which is also twice as much that of U.S. companies.

"Reprinted with permission of Citi Research. Not to be reproduced"

(Danilo Masoni)



A global, but relatively contained, banking crisis in March has done little to stop European banking shares from having a comparatively strong year, and analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux are staying overweight the sector, despite possible growth risks.

The STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index .SX7P has gained 12% in 2023, on track for its second-best yearly performance in the last 10 years and outperforming the broad STOXX 600 .STOXX, which has gained just over 5%.

The sector has benefitted from higher interest rates which, for the first time since the 2008/2009 financial crisis, have given a boost to banks' net interest income (NII), and if global growth momentum holds up, banks could continue to outperform.

"The sector is highly vulnerable if the recession turns out to be deeper than expected, but our macro scenario, which involves a mild recession, should have no meaningful implications on banks’ asset quality," Kepler Cheuvreux analysts say in a note.

"We believe balance sheets are ring-fenced against a 'short-lived recession', as capital ratios are strong, non-performing loans very low, and collective provisions high."

Kepler also highlights the sector's high dividend and buy-back yield of close to 10%, which it describes as "difficult to ignore".

The firm's most preferred stocks are Commerzbank CBKG.DE, ING Group INGA.AS, Santander SAN.MC and Société Générale SOGN.PA. Its least preferred are ABN AMRO ABNd.AS, Banca Generali BGN.MI, CaixaBank CABK.MC and Unicaja UNI.MC.

(Samuel Indyk)



Most major European indexes are up on Monday, taking their cue from a positive close on Wall Street on Friday, where the S&P 500 .SPX finished the day at a more than seven-week high.

Markets are generally ignoring the risk of a U.S. government shutdown ahead of an end-of-week deadline to keep the government funded. Markets are also shrugging at Moody's lowering its outlook on the U.S. sovereign rating to negative from stable.

The STOXX 600 .STOXX is up 0.7%, while Germany's DAX .GDAXI, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE and France's CAC 40 .FCHI are up between 0.4%-0.7%.

Denmark's OMX Copenhagen 20 .OMXC20 is up 2.4%, supported by a more than 3% rise in Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO shares after data showed the company's obesity treatment Wegovy was seen to reduce the incidence of heart attack, stroke or death by heart disease by 20%.

The rally in Novo Nordisk shares is giving a boost to the healthcare sector .SXDP, which is up 1.3% and on track for its biggest daily percentage jump since Sept. 20.

Here's your opening snapshot:

(Samuel Indyk)


European equity futures are edging higher on Monday, with markets largely ignoring the decision by Moody's to put the AAA sovereign rating of the U.S. on outlook negative from stable.

Futures on the pan-European Euro STOXX 50 STXEc1, Germany's DAX FDXc1 and Britain's FTSE 100 FFIc1 are all up around 0.3%-0.4% before key economic data this week.

After a dearth of major releases in the week just gone, focus in the week ahead turns back to inflation figures, as the U.S. (Tuesday) and Britain (Wednesday) publish consumer price reports, as well as final data from the euro zone on Friday.

In corporate news, Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO, one of Europe's largest companies by market value, said heart protective benefits of its popular obesity treatment Wegovy are due to more than weight loss, according to new data published on Saturday.

(Samuel Indyk)



Chip stocks gave Asian equity investors some small bit of cheer to start the week, picking up where Wall Street left off while U.S. yields stayed subdued, which kept a lid on the dollar, too.

But elsewhere, bears were firmly in control.

A lot of that can likely be traced to China, rather than to the Moody's downgrade to the outlook for the U.S. sovereign debt rating, which investors have taken in stride.

The Chinese consumer has so far refused to ride to the rescue of the world's second-largest economy. Monthly retail sales data is due on Wednesday but the country's Singles Day shopping extravaganza over the weekend - equivalent to Black Friday sales elsewhere - recorded only meagre growth.

Looking across the region, Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei managed to keep its head above water, buoyed by gains for its two biggest chip-related shares; Taiwan's benchmark advanced 0.8%.

But Hong Kong flipped from early gains to a loss of about 0.15%. A sub-index of tech shares remained firmly positive but another of mainland property developers slumped more than 1%.

China's blue chips fell 0.5%.

U.S. retail sales data is also due on Wednesday, preceded by CPI a day earlier. The figures could be key in helping the Federal Reserve to plot the path ahead for interest rates, including whether another hike is needed.

The Fed's rhetoric has taken a hawkish turn recently, but markets so far are more focused on the data, particularly the soft non-farm payrolls numbers at the start of this month.

ECB President Christine Lagarde last week said that rates will stay restrictive at least for several quarters. Lagarde deputy Luis de Guindos has his say a little later today, giving the keynote speech to kick off Euro Finance Week.

Elsewhere, Bank of England board member Catherine L. Mann will take the podium, after the bank's chief economist, Huw Pill, said last week its projection that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive for an extended period should not be taken as a promise.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

-ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Mann speak

-UK Rightmove house prices

-Sweden SEB housing

-New York Fed consumer expectations survey

(Kevin Buckland)





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ข้อความสงวนสิทธิ์: บริษัทในเครือ XM Group มีการให้บริการดำเนินคำสั่งและการเข้าถึงแพลตฟอร์มซื้อขายออนไลน์ของเรา ซึ่งช่วยให้บุคคลสามารถดู และ/หรือใช้ข้อมูลที่มีอยู่บนหรือผ่านทางเว็บไซต์ ซึ่งไม่ได้มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงหรือขยายความจากสิ่งนี้ อีกทั้งการเข้าถึงดังกล่าวจะอยู่ภายใต้: (i) เงื่อนไขและข้อตกลง; (ii) คำเตือนเกี่ยวกับความเสี่ยง; และ (iii) ข้อความสงวนสิทธิ์ฉบับเต็ม ดังนั้นข้อมูลดังกล่าวจึงเป็นเพียงแค่ข้อมูลทั่วไปเท่านั้น นอกจากนี้โปรดทราบว่าข้อมูลต่างๆ บนแพลตฟอร์มซื้อขายออนไลน์ของเราไม่ได้มีการเชื้อเชิญหรือถือเป็นข้อเสนอให้ทำธุรกรรมใดๆ บนตลาดการเงิน และการซื้อขายบนตลาดการเงินใดๆ มีความเสี่ยงในระดับสูงกับเงินทุนของคุณ

เนื้อหาทั้งหมดที่ถูกเผยแพร่อยู่บนแพลตฟอร์มเทรดออนไลน์ของเรามีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อให้ข้อมูล/ความรู้เท่านั้นและไม่มี – และไม่ควรถือว่ามี – คำแนะนำด้านการเงิน, ภาษีการลงทุน, หรือการเทรด หรือข้อมูลราคาย้อนหลัง, หรือข้อเสนอ, หรือการเชื้อเชิญให้ทำธุรกรรมใดๆ เกี่ยวกับตราสารทางการเงินหรือโปรโมชั่นทางการเงินสำหรับท่าน

เนื้อหาของบุคคลที่สามใดๆ รวมถึงเนื้อหาที่ถูกจัดเตรียมขึ้นโดย XM เช่น ข้อคิดเห็น, ข่าวสาร, บทวิเคราะห์, ราคา, ข้อมูลอื่นๆ หรือลิงก์ไปยังเว็บไซต์ของบุคคลที่สามที่อยู่ในเว็บไซต์นี้ถูกจัดทำขึ้น “ตามที่เป็น” ซึ่งเป็นการแสดงความคิดเห็นเกี่ยวกับตลาดโดยทั่วไปและไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำด้านการลงทุน เนื่องจากเนื้อหาเหล่านี้ถือเป็นบทวิจัยด้านการลงทุน ท่านจะต้องทราบและยอมรับว่า เนื้อหาเหล่านี้ไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์และไม่ได้มีการถูกจัดเตรียมขึ้นตามข้อกำหนดทางด้านกฎหมายที่ถูกออกแบบขึ้นมาเพื่อส่งเสริมการวิจัยด้านการลงทุนที่เป็นอิสระ ดังนั้นเนื้อหาเหล่านี้ถือเป็นการสื่อสารทางการตลาดภายใต้กฎหมายและกฎระเบียบที่เกี่ยวข้อง โปรดอ่านและทำความเข้าใจประกาศเกี่ยวกับบทวิจัยด้านการลงทุนที่ไม่ได้มีความเป็นอิสระและคำเตือนเกี่ยวกับความเสี่ยงซึ่งมีความเกี่ยวข้องกับข้อมูลต่างๆ ดังที่ได้กล่าวไปแล้ว โดยท่านสามารถดูได้ ที่นี่

คำเตือนความเสี่ยง: เงินทุนของท่านมีความเสี่ยง ผลิตภัณฑ์ที่มีอัตราทดอาจไม่เหมาะสำหรับนักลงทุนบางราย โปรดศึกษาและทำความเข้าใจเอกสารเปิดเผยข้อมูลความเสี่ยงของเรา