Japan's consumer inflation off 41-year high but cost pressure persists
Feb core CPI up 3.1% yr/yr, matches forecast
Index excluding fresh food, fuel costs rises 3.5% in Feb
Data shows cost-push pressure from raw materials easing
Adds analyst quote, graphic link
By Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara
TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) -Japan's core consumer inflation slowed in February but an index stripping away energy costs hit a four-decade high, data showed on Friday, suggesting cost-push pressures may persist longer than policymakers thought.
With inflation still exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, the data will keep alive market expectations of a tweak to its bond yield control policy under incoming governor Kazuo Ueda, analysts say.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes oil products, rose 3.1% in February from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast and slowing sharply from a 41-year high of 4.2% seen in January.
The slowdown was mostly due to the effect of government subsidies to curb utility bills. Prices of non-energy items like food and daily necessities continued to rise, a sign the pass-through of rising raw material costs have yet to run its course.
"Inflationary pressure remains strong," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Many food producers have announced plans to hike prices further in March."
Highlighting the lingering cost-push pressure, a separate index that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs rose 3.5% in February from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.2% gain in January.
The index, dubbed "core-core" CPI and closely watched by the BOJ as an indicator of price moves reflecting demand, marked the fastest year-on-year increase since January 1982.
The data highlight the challenge the BOJ faces in gauging whether the cost-push inflation will shift to a more sustained, demand-driven price rise - or cool consumption and choke off a fragile economic recovery.
The price and wage outlook will be key to how soon the BOJ can phase out its bond yield control policy under incoming head Ueda, who succeeds Haruhiko Kuroda when his term ends in April.
Ueda has said stronger wage growth must accompany cost-push inflation for price growth to steadily hit the bank's 2% target.
Some BOJ policymakers have flagged the chance inflation could exceed initial expectations, as price hikes and wage gains show sign of broadening.
In closely watched annual labour talks with union earlier this month, top Japanese companies agreed to their largest pay increases in a quarter century in a sign the country may be finally shaking off the public's sticky deflationary mindset.
However, with global commodity prices having peaked and the yen's rebound reducing import costs, many analysts share the BOJ's view that inflation will slow back below its 2% target later this year.
The recent market rout caused by the failure of two U.S. banks, and the takeover of Credit Suisse, also complicates the BOJ's policy path by adding to risks for Japan's economy.
"The (CPI) numbers are fluctuating due to supply shocks and its repercussion, as well as the effect of government steps to combat rising living costs," said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities.
"The new BOJ leadership will scrutinise Japan's price trend, as well as U.S. and European developments, in deciding its policy move," he said.
Japan's core inflation off 41-year highhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3nkMHic
Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam Holmes
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
