S&P 500 index: Time for a turn?
U.S. equity index futures mixed: Nasdaq 100 up ~0.6%
Mortgage market index 196.7 vs 202.1 prior
Mar durable goods 2.6% vs 2.5% estimate
Mar durable goods ex-transport 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.3%
Dollar edges up; bitcoin, crude down; gold ~flat
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.65%
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S&P 500 INDEX: TIME FOR A TURN?
Since around the time of the spring equinox, which was March 19 at 11:06 pm, the S&P 500 index .SPX started struggling.
Indeed, the benchmark index hit an intraday high of 5,261.10 on March 21. Over the next five trading days, it chopped around, before, on March 28, poking to a fresh record intraday high of 5,264.85.
The index then sold off as much as 5.91% into its April 19 intraday low.
Meanwhile, on the weekly charts, this week marks the 80th bar since the S&P 500's October 2022 bear-market trough:
That 2022 bear market took 40 weekly bars to play out. Thus, this week marks 2x that bear-market's duration.
Traders who utilize time-based methodologies, may look for market turns around points in time projected forward from a major low.
Of note, since the market's October 2022 trough, and using trend-based Fibonacci time projections, the SPX has seen some major turns around the weeks that suggested the potential for a reversal.
Indeed, the index put in high in early January 2023, just one weekly bar after the 0.382 time projection. It then sold off as much as 9.2%.
In early April 2023, at the 0.618 time projection, the SPX began to struggle before ultimately resuming its advance in mid-May.
In late July 2023, it put in another significant high one weekly bar after the 1.0 time projection. It then sold off as much as 10.92% into its late-October low.
The S&P 500's late-October 2023 trough came one weekly bar ahead of the 1.382 time projection.
The quick, more than 2%, sell-off into early January of this year bottomed one weekly bar ahead of the 1.618 time projection.
Now, with this week's rally so far, coinciding with the 2.0 time projection, the SPX has so far popped more than 2% from last Friday's close.
It now remains to be seen if last week marked the end of a corrective pullback from the late-March high, which would then put the SPX back on track to resume its advance to new highs.
Certainly, this week's big earnings reports, along with highly anticipated PCE price data due Friday, offer the potential to kick off another major market leg, one way or the other.
In any event, the next trend based Fib time projection occurs at the 2.382 mark in mid August.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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