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Could dollar longs be set for some pain?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Could dollar longs be set for some pain? Feb 26 (Reuters) - FX speculators remain long the U.S. dollar but could be in for some pain in the days ahead as a major technical signal points to a potential slump. The speculative long position - derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars - was trimmed slightly in the week ending Feb.
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Dollar dips as rally peters out, most PMI data adds to market optimism

FOREX -Dollar dips as rally peters out, most PMI data adds to market optimism Updates at 1225 GMT, changes dateline, pvs SINGAPORE By Rae Wee and Alun John LONDON/SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Thursday as share markets hitting record highs drove optimism across asset classes and traders digested a slew of largely better-than-expected business activity surveys, looking for implications for interest rates.
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This could be the start of another big USD rally

BUZZ-This could be the start of another big USD rally USD dived between 2022-23 after investments in it became overcrowded USD then rose on expectations that U.S. int/rates would remain high Subsequently dropped as expectations for an easing cycle grew Amount of expected easing has been reduced and start cycle pushed back The high for long view is holding underpinning USD nL2N3F70V0 nL2N3F70SV Overbought conditions which pegged USD back in 2022 alleviated USD based last year soon after meeting m
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The daily chart points to a bigger dollar slump

BUZZ-COMMENT-The daily chart points to a bigger dollar slump Feb 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar looks set for a much bigger slump in coming sessions, despite January meeting minutes showing the Federal Reserve worries about cutting rates too soon , as the daily chart technical signals worsen. The USD index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, has tumbled in recent sessions from its 2024 104.970 peak.
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Dollar dips as most PMI data releases add to market optimism

FOREX-Dollar dips as most PMI data releases add to market optimism Updates at 1000 GMT By Rae Wee and Alun John SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Thursday as share markets hitting record highs drove optimism across asset classes and traders digested a slew of largely better-than-expected business activity surveys looking for implications for interest rates.
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Scarcity of safe currencies is a growing problem

BUZZ-COMMENT-Scarcity of safe currencies is a growing problem Feb 21 (Reuters) - The scarcity of safe currencies is a growing problem with the yen effectively excluded from an already small pool of potentially safe assets. This lack of safer currencies has led to dollar rallies even when the source of worries fuelling risk aversion stems from the United States.
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Investors warm to Swiss stocks, weakening franc breaks the ice

ANALYSIS-Investors warm to Swiss stocks, weakening franc breaks the ice By Samuel Indyk and Alun John LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Investors have been pouring cash into Swiss stocks in the hope that this export-focussed market will outshine its peers, in part thanks to a shift in central bank policy that could knock the franc further off 2023's multi-year highs.
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Lack of movement is major factor influencing FX

BUZZ-COMMENT-Lack of movement is major factor influencing FX Feb 20 (Reuters) - One of the most important factors influencing currencies is their lack of movement with volatility dropping at the same time as major stock markets have soared which will fuel demand for carry trades. When currencies are quiet, interest rates matter more and because the dollar is currently supported by an interest rate that is higher than those for other major currencies it should remain well supported while traders
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Dollar-bullish convictions have doubled

BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar-bullish convictions have doubled Feb 19 (Reuters) - FX speculators are becoming increasingly confident that the greenback's strong rise since the turn of the year will continue in the days and weeks ahead. The speculative long position -- derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars -- has more than doubled.
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View of the Week: Fed, ECB move over: Swiss may lead rate cutting cycle?

RPT-BUZZ-View of the Week: Fed, ECB move over: Swiss may lead rate cutting cycle? Repeats with no changes Feb 15 (Reuters) - A sizeable miss in the latest Swiss inflation figures would suggest that the Swiss National Bank should be loosening monetary policy. Market pricing backs this view with the probability of a March rate cut at 63%, up from 34% prior to the data.
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Interesting parallels with 2007 for FX traders to consider

BUZZ-Interesting parallels with 2007 for FX traders to consider Feb 16 (Reuters) - Currency markets are quiet, heightening the importance of interest rates and fuelling demand for carry trades, while equities are booming. This also happened in 2007 and considering what followed then, it's worth noting as like equities, carry trades are risky. The year before the global financial crisis carry trades were popular as currencies idled and stocks hit record highs.
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Lots more cash may flow toward the dollar

BUZZ-COMMENT-Lots more cash may flow toward the dollar Feb 16 (Reuters) - In an environment suiting carry trades where there is clearly a strong will to invest in equities when currency markets have quietened, more cash may flow towards the dollar. The dollar is supported by interest rates that are higher than those for other major currencies, and it's safer than other currencies: It's more liquid, it's backed by a wide variety of associated U.S.
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View of the Week: Fed, ECB move over: Swiss may lead rate cutting cycle?

BUZZ-View of the Week: Fed, ECB move over: Swiss may lead rate cutting cycle? Feb 15 (Reuters) - A sizeable miss in the latest Swiss inflation figures would suggest that the Swiss National Bank should be loosening monetary policy. Market pricing backs this view with the probability of a March rate cut at 63%, up from 34% prior to the data. Swiss inflation is 0.5ppts below bank’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%, while the core measure is now at 1.2%, down from 1.5%.
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US dollar retreats as slew of data keeps rate cut expectations in June intact

FOREX-US dollar retreats as slew of data keeps rate cut expectations in June intact U.S. retail sales fall more than expected U.S. jobless claims drop in latest week Empire State, Philly Fed indexes recover Rate futures price in first Fed cut in June Adds new comment, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell for a second straight session on Thursday after a mixed, but overall solid batch of U.S.
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US dollar drops as mixed data keeps Fed on track to cut rates mid-year

FOREX-US dollar drops as mixed data keeps Fed on track to cut rates mid-year U.S. retail sales fall more than expected U.S. jobless claims drop in latest week Empire State, Philly Fed indexes recover Rate futures price in first Fed cut in June Recasts, adds analyst comments, jobless claims data, details on retail sales, Empire State index, Philly Fed data, byline, bullets, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell for a second straight session on Thu
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Dollar steady before data; yen rises despite GDP surprise

CORRECTED-FOREX-Dollar steady before data; yen rises despite GDP surprise Corrects headline to yen rising, not slipping By Harry Robertson and Brigid Riley LONDON/TOKYO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady on Thursday as investors waited for data on U.S. retail sales and jobless claims, while the yen climbed despite the Japanese economy falling into a recession.
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Dollar steady before data; yen rises despite GDP surprise

CORRECTED-FOREX-Dollar steady before data; yen rises despite GDP surprise Corrects headline to yen rising, not slipping By Harry Robertson and Brigid Riley LONDON/TOKYO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady on Thursday as investors waited for data on U.S. retail sales and jobless claims, while the yen climbed despite the Japanese economy falling into a recession.
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FX options wrap - USD gains lack essential FX volatility

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD gains lack essential FX volatility Despite Tuesday's U.S. CPI beat enhancing the USD's appeal, it has failed to reignite the realised FX volatility (current and expected) upon which FX options thrive. Implied volatility has reacted accordingly - shorter-dated expiries fell after the CPI event risk premium was priced out, but there was some mild demand for 1-month expiry options due to their inclusion of March U.S.
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It should come as no surprise dollar is flying high

BUZZ-COMMENT-It should come as no surprise dollar is flying high Feb 14 (Reuters) - It should be no surprise to FX traders that the dollar is currently flying high, as it has risen in February for seven years in a row . A combination of market positioning, fundamental and technical factors point to even bigger gains. FX speculators recently gave up on dollar shorts and switched to longs, as the greenback's strong rise since the turn of the year put doubts in the minds of those who had been beari
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A cost effective option to hedge limited USD gains

BUZZ-COMMENT-A cost effective option to hedge limited USD gains Feb 14 (Reuters) - The schedule for U.S. rate cuts has been delayed, and the magnitude of reductions decreased, giving inflation more time to subside. But cuts are still coming and further USD gains may therefore be limited. USD call options have seen a pick-up in demand since Tuesday's U.S.
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