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USDJPY


Έρευνα XM

Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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Market Comment – Dollar higher, yen under pressure but stocks feel good

Yen suffers from BoJ's inactivity Dollar recovers from Wednesday’s underperformance US stock indices’ euphoria continues BoJ meeting held no surprises The yen is under pressure again today as the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and decided to trim its bond buying programme but postponed the announcement of the new size of bond purchases until the July meeting.
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Market Comment – Fed stops dollar’s CPI-related bleed, BoJ next

Dollar tumbles after weaker-than-expected CPI data Recovers somewhat after Fed signals one rate cut BoJ decision looms as investors bet on July hike US CPI data propels Wall Street to fresh records Inflation slows, Fed sees one rate cut in 2024 After a turbulent session, the US dollar finished lower against all its major counterparts on Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY holds within narrow range in near term

USDJPY remains below 157.70 Uptrend line acts as strong support Momentum oscillators show contradicting signs USDJPY is still developing below the 157.70 resistance level and well above the medium-term ascending trend line, failing to have a notable movement after the US CPI data and the Fed decision on Wednesday. The technical oscillators are showing some mixed signals.
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Will the Bank of Japan hint at a July hike? – Preview

Investors see decent chance for BoJ hike in July But struggling economy complicates the policy outlook Report on bond buying sets the hawkish bar even higher The Bank decides on Friday at 03:00 GMT   Obstacles in the road for the next BoJ hike At its latest gathering on April 26, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the range for its benchmark rate unchanged between 0% and 0.1% as was widely expected.
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Volatility surges across the board – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs are very volatile after strong NFP report Volatility in gold and silver ticks up, oil swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump amid correction fears Volatility in dollar crosses has picked up as the stronger-than-expected NFP report dialed back rate cut expectations, while investors are bracing for the FOMC meeting and the CPI print later this week. Euro pairs are in a similar position after the EU elections sparked a wave of politically instabili
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Fed pivot less likely after strong NFP, focus on CPI report and dot plot – Preview

A dovish pivot by the Fed is looking less likely at the June meeting Will Fed officials flag two or just one rate cut after strong jobs data? CPI report will also be crucial on Wednesday (12:30 GMT) Statement due at 18:00 GMT will be followed by press conference at 18:30 GMT One step forward, two steps back After a run of consistently hot data on inflation and the economy all year, it briefly seemed like the tide was turning for early rate cut hopes.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, US dollar index, USDJPY

Euro area elections drives EURUSD sharply lower Fed decision and US inflation would have strong impact at US dollar index Will BoJ decision affect USDJPY? Euro area elections --> EURUSD The European elections resulted in significant setbacks for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The euro had a significant decline on Monday due to political uncertainty caused by French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of a sudden legislative electio
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Week Ahead – Fed and BoJ decide on monetary policy

US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data   Mind the dots With US inflation resuming its downtrend in April and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May disappointing, investors remained convinced that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates at some point this year.
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Market Comment – ECB cut awaited as Wall Street sets new record

ECB expected to follow in BoC’s footsteps and cut by 25bps Fed rate cut hopes rise despite upbeat ISM services PMI Dollar mostly steady, stocks surge higher ECB set to deliver this week’s second cut The European Central Bank is on course to become the second central bank in the G7 this week to lower borrowing costs after the Bank of Canada paved the way on Wednesday.
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Market Comment – Fed rate cut bets grow but dollar steadies, BoC to likely cut

Soft US data continues to pile up, boosting Fed rate cut bets But dollar on steadier footing ahead of ISM services PMI Bank of Canada expected to cut rates today, loonie slips Oil slide deepens, stocks struggle for direction All eyes on ISM services PMI after soft data run After repeated setbacks, the needle finally seems to be shifting for the Fed to start cutting rates soon, with bets for a September move gaining significant traction in recent days.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY recoups losses after bounce off rising line

USDJPY heads north with first resistance at 20-day SMA RSI and Stochastics confirm upside movement USDJPY has reversed back up again after the strong rebound off the medium-term uptrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), meeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 140.20 to 160.20 at 155.50. Momentum indicators are pointing to a positive bias in the short term with the RSI crossing above the neutral threshold of 50, while the stochastic oscillator is
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY plunges below uptrend line

USDJPY creates negative retracement RSI and MACD suggest more ground to be lost USDJPY has been underperforming in the past two days, meeting the medium-term uptrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after the failed attempt to climb above the 157.70 resistance level. According to technical oscillators, the RSI is slipping beneath the 50 level, while the MACD is losing momentum beneath its trigger line.
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Volatility ticks up in commodity and stock markets – Volatility Watch

Forex pairs in a quiet mood despite upcoming rate decisions Volatility in oil skyrockets, gold swims in calm waters US equities exhibit volatility jump as they ease from record highs Euro/dollar and euro/pound volatilities have been in the middle of their 30-day range, even though markets are bracing for the first interest rate cut by the ECB since 2016 on its Thursday meeting.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY continues to trade with resilience near April’s bar as forecasts point to robust US jobs data EURUSD holds within caution area as the ECB prepares to cut interest rates USDCAD directionless despite a probable rate cut in Canada this week   Nonfarm payrolls, ISM business PMIs --> USDJPY The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before September according to futures markets, and although the wolves of Wall Street are not fond of this scenario, the US dollar ca
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USDJPY advances steadily supported by the 50-SMA Oscillators suggest that bearish forces are strengthening USDJPY has been in a steady recovery since mid-May, posting a one-month high of 157.70 last week. Although the pair experienced a pullback from its recent peak, the ascending 50-period simple moving average (SMA) seems to be providing a strong floor.
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Market Comment – Steady start as markets digest data ahead of rate decisions and NFP

ECB cuts pared back after CPI uptick, but Fed hopes rise on softer core PCE BoC to likely join ECB in cutting rates this week after GDP miss Upbeat Asian PMIs boost equities ahead of US jobs report Oil prices muted as OPEC+ decision sends mixed signals on output ECB and BoC take centre stage After much speculation all year on who will press the rate cut button first and when, the European Central Bank looks set to beat the Federal Reserve in cutting first.
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  Technical Analysis – USDJPY may retest 157.70

USDJPY remains positive but fails to extend bullish structure RSI and MACD suggest neutral-to-bullish move USDJPY has reversed back down again after finding resistance at the 157.70 resistance level. The pair is developing above the medium-term diagonal line and the simple moving averages (SMAs). Momentum indicators are pointing to a neutral to positive bias in the short term with the RSI above the 50 level and the MACD oscillator moving sideways above the zero zone and near its trigg
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Week Ahead – ECB rate cut might get eclipsed by BoC surprise and NFP report

ECB set to slash rates on Thursday, focus on forward guidance But will the BoC take the lead when it meets on Wednesday? US jobs report eyed on Friday as Fed unyielding on cuts OPEC+ might extend some output reductions into 2025 ECB poised to cut rates, but what’s next? The path by central banks to lower borrowing costs has been far from smooth, but it seems that the European Central Bank will be among the first to reach its desired destination.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY reapproaches multi-year highs

USDJPY in a recovery mode after pullback halts at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are softening but remain in bullish zones USDJPY experienced a strong setback from its 34-year high of 160.20 following an intervention by Japanese authorities in late April. However, the pair has slowly but steadily recouped a significant part of these losses, attempting to revisit its recent multi-year highs.
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